US Economics Update QE3 may dwarf other central bank policies The sheer size of the Fed’s QE3 policy becomes even more apparent when it is compared to the policies of other central banks. Although we doubt that QE3 will set the US economy alight, the greater... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus QE3 unlikely to halt the underperformance of EM equities Emerging market equities are on course to underperform developed market equities for the second year in a row. We think this pattern is likely to continue through the end of 2013 even as the Fed... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Spending and output falling, confidence fragile Monthly activity data show that Japan’s economy is entering a period of contraction, after the recovery stalled at the end of the second quarter. Consumer and business spending is falling, output is... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Downside risks to Central London office rents in 2013 dominate A simple projection for demand, supply and vacancy rates suggests that our forecasts for 5% falls in Central London office rents in both 2013 and 2014 remain on track. There is a risk that those falls... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: fiscal slippage won’t spook bond markets Financial markets are unlikely to be spooked by signs of fiscal slippage in Poland – compared with the rest of Europe, the government’s finances are a picture of health. In fact, we think bond yields... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing correction only just beginning Canada's already lacklustre rate of economic growth is only going to slow further as the housing correction intensifies. Home sales are now falling sharply and it is only a matter of time before... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Shrinking exports will act as large drag on Q3 GDP Japan’s goods exports fell further in August as the slowdown in the global economy continued to weigh on trade. Unless exports have rebounded in September, and today’s flash PMIs from China and the... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will higher commodity prices offset the benefits of QE3? The recent decline in oil prices supports our view that a third round of quantitative easing from the US Fed is unlikely to cause global inflation to take off. Unfortunately, the boost to economic... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus In which German city is the office rental outlook best? Over the next five years we think that, with regard to the outlook for rental values, the composition of its occupier base and its low level of rental values means that, on average, Frankfurt is... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Markit Manufacturing PMI & Philly Fed (Sep.) The key message from the host of September manufacturing surveys recently released is that conditions haven’t really deteriorated since last month, but industry is still the weakest part of the... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rate cut still possible in November Although the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept its benchmark repo rate on hold at 5.00% today, we think that rate cuts could be back on the agenda as early as November this year. 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US economy hit by global slowdown The global economic slowdown appears to be having a more marked impact on the US economy, with exports falling sharply in July and manufacturing output dropping in August. The survey evidence now... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Light at the end of the tunnel After two years of turmoil, there is light at the end of the tunnel for some of the resource-poor Arab economies. But a recovery is unlikely to start until 2014 at the earliest. Next year, most of... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) While the Olympics appears to have created some winners and losers on the high street, August’s official figures show that the Games failed to provide an overall boost to retail spending. 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep. 12) The fall in the flash euro-zone composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in September is another reminder that the ECB’s new asset purchase programme is not an answer to all of the region’s problems... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak PMIs provide another reality check With the boost to commodity prices from global policy stimulus already fading, the continued weakness of the flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone is a timely reminder of the poor... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
