Europe Economics Focus What are the lessons of historical devaluations for Greece? The experience of economies which have undergone major currency depreciations in the past suggests that a return to the drachma would kick start a Greek economic recovery. Provided that Greece adopted... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul.) The sixth successive monthly rise in house prices in July supports our view that, even with the broader economic recovery struggling to gain traction, the housing recovery is sustainable. 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July's 0.6% m/m gain in retail sales volumes was somewhat stronger than we had assumed, but only helps to offset declines in wholesale trade and manufacturing sales, which we think restrained July's... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Amsterdam headline office rents still insulated by incentives Increased use of rental incentives seems to have had a powerful dampening effect on the response of headline office rents in Amsterdam to swings – both up and down – in the vacancy rate. The... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed‘s purchases of MBS may have limits QE3 could eventually leave the Fed holding nearly 30% of all mortgage-backed securities, making it a bigger player in the market than either banks or mutual funds. This suggests that, unless economic... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Czech National Bank not yet out of options The Czech National Bank is likely to cut interest rates to a fresh record low later this week. But it is quickly running out of room for conventional policy responses to lift the economy out of... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to stabilise at low levels despite more QE Inflation has fallen sharply this year and is likely to remain low. Admittedly, the rise in the price of oil and some agricultural commodities since June will push the headline inflation rate back up... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Aug.) The recovery from June’s sharp dip in mortgage approvals continues, but the broader picture remains one of a subdued lending environment. There is no sign as yet that Government efforts to revive the... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Institutional Investment in Property (Q2) Official data show that a run of net buying of property by UK investing institutions came to an end in Q2. And Property Archive data show that this net selling continued in July and August. Experience... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Disappointing trade data a reminder the global economy is weak 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan growth to pick up but vulnerabilities persist Q2 GDP data for Kenya, due to be released this week, are likely to show a pick-up in growth from Q1, and we expect further acceleration in the second half of the year. However, the country remains... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More downside for soybean prices than most expect We have revised our near-term soybean price forecasts higher to reflect the ongoing support from lower US supplies. However, this support should fade as the focus moves on to the prospect of a record... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: inflation will rise with or without a grain export ban The Russian authorities have raised the prospect of export bans on grains to contain local food inflation. But past experience suggests that such moves have had little impact on domestic prices, and... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Businesses are not hoarding more cash It is encouraging that, faced with the prospect of the US economy hitting the fiscal cliff at the end of the year, businesses have not started to hoard more cash. At the same time, though, there is... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: Has INDEC had a reality check? The most striking thing about Argentina’s Q2 GDP data is that the upward bias to growth, which has been evident in the official figures since mid-2007, seems to have eased. Even so, there are no signs... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep. 12) September’s fall in the German Ifo business survey is a reminder that even the euro-zone’s strongest economies are suffering from a severe economic downturn. 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
