Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial recession deepens in Central Europe The pick-up in the manufacturing PMI for Russia and Turkey last month is good news, although the survey still suggests that industrial production in both countries stagnated in quarterly terms in Q3... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manuf. (Sep.) & Mortgage Approvals (Aug.) Today’s economic data presented a uniformly weak picture of economic activity and will therefore go some way to dampening hopes that the “green shoots” of recovery are emerging. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Aug.) August was the ninth consecutive month of negative net commercial property lending flows. Unfortunately, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that tough conditions in the property lending market are set... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Manufacturing PMI adds to signs of a turnaround in Brazil The pick-up in September’s manufacturing PMI adds to recent evidence suggesting that policy stimulus is starting to take effect in Brazil. We suspect that the turnaround in the real economy will... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan consistent with GDP contraction Today’s weak Tankan survey supports our long-held view that Japan’s economy will have contracted in the third quarter. What’s more, a further contraction in Q4 looks increasingly likely. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Survey highlights downside risks to London office rents in 2013 On past form, the weakness of today’s CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey suggests that, over the next nine to 12 months, Central London office rental values could fall by as much as 10%. To us, that... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguayan rate hike will do little to tame inflation The Uruguayan Central Bank’s decision to hike interest rates by 25bps is unlikely to do much to tackle stubbornly high inflation. Strong price pressures are largely due to structural rigidities in the... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Survey highlights downside risks to London office rents in 2013 On past form, the weakness of today’s CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey suggests that, over the next nine to 12 months, Central London office rental values could fall by as much as 10%. To us, that... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) China’s two manufacturing PMIs both picked up in September but give no strong reason to believe that we are on the cusp of a sustained rebound. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in September will boost hopes that some of the recent slowdown in economic growth was just a summer phenomenon. But while GDP growth may accelerate a bit, a... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pensions auto-enrolment another factor pushing up saving The Government’s new pensions auto-enrolment scheme gets underway today. In its initial stages, the new contributions that some workers will start to pay will probably have only a modest effect on... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Single-family rentals: the next big thing? The housing crash has created the ideal conditions for institutions to invest in single-family rented housing. But this looks like a one-time opportunity. As house prices recover, so investor interest... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Small steps forward don't lift the uncertainty Developments in the euro-zone last week brought the implementation of more decisive policy action to tackle the region’s debt crisis an important step closer. Most notably, the Spanish budget included... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Odds stacking heavily against condo soft landing Slumping home sales is casting a dark shadow over prospects for new housing construction. Although the recent surge in multi-unit housing starts might sustain the elevated level of overall housing... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we be worried about the current account deficit? While last week brought some tentatively positive signs regarding bank lending, the news that the UK ran a record current account deficit in Q2, thanks to an investment income deficit, was less... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
