More downside for soybean prices than most expect

We have revised our near-term soybean price forecasts higher to reflect the ongoing support from lower US supplies. However, this support should fade as the focus moves on to the prospect of a record South American harvest early next year. Falling oil prices due to continued weakness in the global economy would also help to drag soybean prices down. Overall, we expect prices to fall another 6% or so by the end of this year and a total of 30% by the end of 2013.