Canada Economics Update Household Balance Sheets (2012 Q2) Revised data released today show that Canada's household debt problem is even worse than previously thought. Debt growth dynamics over the last decade look eerily similar to the US experience, just... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) & Empire State Index (Oct.) The strong rise in retail sales in September was probably flattered by a gain in food prices (triggered by the recent drought) and the release of Apple’s iPhone 5. Nonetheless, it now seems likely... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation pushed up by diesel price hike The increase in India’s headline inflation rate, to 7.8% in September, reinforces our view that the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates again this year. 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports flattered by temporary factors China’s imports of commodities recovered some ground in September after a poor August, aided by a seasonal pick-up in demand and restocking. However, there is little to suggest that this marks the... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s gold boost set to lose its shine A surge in gold sales to crisis-hit Iran has played a significant role in reducing Turkey’s current account deficit over the past year. However, gold sales alone are unlikely to bring Turkey’s... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports point to continued weakness at end-Q3 The September import data suggest China’s economy was still weak at the end of Q3. By contrast, last month’s exports were unexpectedly strong, as they were for both Korea and Taiwan, with demand from... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s appreciation another positive for inflation outlook Tomorrow’s inflation figures could show CPI inflation falling below its target for the first time since November 2009. And we still see scope for inflation to fall further over the next year or two... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greek industry really recovering? Greek industry has recently staged a bit of a revival, but we doubt that the upturn will be sustained. And even if it is, the wider economy may remain in recession. 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Could a surge in housebuilding lead to a house price crash? Fears that a surge in housebuilding will lead to a house price crash, and therefore limit the potential boost to the economy, are unfounded. New-build supply is just too small a proportion of the... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Consumption-led rebound remains wishful thinking The apparent strength of tourism and spending during October’s “golden-week” holiday has revived hopes that China could experience a consumer-led rebound. But there is little convincing evidence that... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Sluggish GDP growth likely to stay Disappointing third-quarter trade figures, both for exports and imports, suggests that even our own bearish view on quarterly GDP growth of 1.4% annualised might be too high. Barring significant... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan’s automakers and the importance of China The auto industry in particular has been feeling the effects of the Chinese boycott of Japanese products following the protests over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. In September Toyota and Nissan... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Impact of QE3 already fading The initial reaction to the Fed's QE3 announcement in mid-September was fairly encouraging. Unfortunately, only a few weeks later, things don't look quite as promising. Agency MBS yields have... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The euro-zone’s multiplying woes The IMF’s analysis suggesting that “fiscal multipliers” are rather bigger than many governments have been assuming does not tell us much that we did not already know about the euro-zone. It’s pretty... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly IMF gives Chancellor some wiggle room The IMF’s new economic forecasts did not tell us more than we already knew. Arguably more important was the IMF’s indication that there is some scope to ease up on the fiscal squeeze. 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
