UK Economics Weekly A fiscal red herring The OBR’s argument that the Government’s cuts have not been primarily responsible for the economy’s disappointing performance might give Mr Osborne ammunition to press on with Plan A. But even if the... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Another impotent “stimulus” package The Japanese government has announced its intention to create a new stimulus package to boost the moribund economy and presumably revive the political fortunes of the ruling party. It is unlikely to... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) Following August’s very strong rise, existing home sales predictably gave up a little ground in September. Nevertheless, the bigger picture remains that, driven by extremely favourable valuation and... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) Core inflation fell further below the Bank of Canada's 2% target in September, to 1.3%, its lowest rate in over a year. With slower anticipated GDP growth this quarter and next, underlying inflation... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s current account deficit remains its Achilles’ heel Kenya’s large current account deficit leaves it exposed to a sudden deterioration in the external funding environment, and is one reason to expect a slowdown in the monetary easing cycle in the coming... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Renewed income squeeze looms Real consumer spending looks on course to have grown in the third quarter. And following some upward revisions to past spending, it could rise a touch in 2012 as a whole, compared to our previous... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Price pressures continue to ease in Saudi Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate fell for the seventh consecutive month in September, hitting a three-year low. This will help to ease fears that the economy is overheating, which, in turn... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does China’s growth outlook means for commodities? Consensus expectations for China’s growth and commodity demand have already been marked down but we think this adjustment still has further to go. With the crisis in the euro-zone also likely to... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What does the future hold for US Treasuries? Although we think the yield on 10-year Treasuries will fall back soon from almost its highest level in five months, the medium-term prospects for bonds are far from rosy. Indeed, we think the average... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Sep.) September’s better than expected public finances figures will offer some cheer for the Chancellor. Nevertheless, it still looks like borrowing in 2012/13 will overshoot the OBR’s forecast. The dilemma... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates to remain on hold for a few months yet Chilean policymakers kept interest rates on hold last night amid growing concerns over the strength of the peso. The resilience of domestic demand means that rates should stay unchanged in the near... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Ukraine: walking a tightrope Ukraine’s large external financing requirement and its heavy dependency on industrial exports to Western Europe make it among the most vulnerable countries in Emerging Europe to a re-escalation of the... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Central banks step up policy loosening Over the past month, central banks in South Korea, Thailand, Australia and Pakistan have all cut their policy rates. The moves come in response to continued weakness in exports, which has caused GDP... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Currency concerns keep Egyptian rates on hold Egypt’s central bank kept interest rates on hold today as concerns over the fragile external funding position continue to outweigh the need to stimulate an ailing economy. 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Newsflow continues to point to improving investor confidence At the margin, this week’s Allsop auction results and the withdrawal of RBS from the Asset Protection Scheme (APS) both support the growing sense that sentiment towards the commercial property market... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
