Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: growth may have slowed to 2% in Q3 The latest monthly activity data suggest that the Russian economy is now in the midst of a fairly sharp slowdown. We reckon that GDP growth slowed to around 2% y/y in Q3, from 4% y/y in Q2, and that... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) A sustained pick-up in bank lending helped support broad money growth in September, although the rate of expansion remains subdued. Household borrowing continues to be the main driver of bank lending... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will higher food prices drive up EM inflation? Headline inflation is set to pick up across most of the emerging world over the next six months, in the wake of global food price increases earlier this year. However, the impact should be short-lived... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) In another sign that the improvement in the housing market is gathering pace, housing starts smashed the consensus expectation for a small gain and rose by a very strong 15% m/m. 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US economy developing split personality The US economy appears to be developing a split personality. Households, seemingly oblivious to the scheduled jump in marginal tax rates that will reduce their after-tax income next year, are... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Pain of China’s slowdown is spread unevenly Debates over whether China is facing a “hard landing” generally miss the point that an economic slowdown can affect different groups in different ways. Right now, Chinese policymakers seem not too... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Mariodona will have to swerve soon The fall in government bond yields after the ECB announced its new bond-buying programme has prompted suggestions that the plan may not actually need to be activated. But it is only a matter of time... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is an industrial occupier market recovery underway? It is increasingly clear that certain types and grades of industrial property, e.g. prime distribution warehouses, are experiencing the early stages of an occupier market recovery. Given the weak... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Has lenders’ forbearance reached a limit? Lenders' willingness to agree new payment plans for struggling mortgage borrowers seems undiminished. But the prolonged nature of the recession appears to have taken its toll on the ability of... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi non-oil sector struggling to gain momentum Our activity proxy for Saudi Arabia shows that the economy continues to slow, as growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors starts to ease. Overall GDP growth looks like it slowed to around 4% y/y in... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian oil rush points to “twin-speed” growth Development of the Colombian oil sector will provide an important prop to economic growth over the coming years, but it is not unambiguously good news, particularly for non-commodity exporters. So... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand likely to loosen monetary policy again The Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut its repo rate by 25bp to 2.75% today. We think persistent global weakness will prompt the central bank to loosen its policy settings further. 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Oct.) & Labour Market Data (Aug./Sep.) October’s MPC minutes showed that the Committee is split over whether to do more quantitative easing (QE) once the current round of asset purchases are completed in the next couple of weeks. 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Hawkish bias likely to be scratched early next year We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its tightening bias in next week's policy statement. With the euro-zone taking a temporary step back from the brink and US consumers spending more freely, the... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How reliant are EM governments on high commodity prices? A sharp decline in commodity prices would cause the public finances to deteriorate in many emerging market countries, with the loss of revenues greatest in the Middle East and parts of Africa. However... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
