Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fall in commodity prices will bring some relief to Morocco Morocco’s current account deficit has been pushed up to a 27-year high by a combination of weaker export demand from the euro-zone and the higher cost of commodity imports. Nonetheless, an IMF funding... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fall in commodity prices will bring some relief to Morocco Morocco’s current account deficit has been pushed up to a 27-year high by a combination of weaker export demand from the euro-zone and the higher cost of commodity imports. Nonetheless, an IMF funding... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The solid 1.8% m/m rebound in August's manufacturing sales volumes, partially due to volatility in petroleum and coal products, and upward revisions to July's data are encouraging. Overall, this helps... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Sep.) At the start of next year, the MPC will have to decide what to do with those gilts purchased in its quantitative easing (QE) programme that are about to mature. We expect the Committee to maintain its... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish tax hikes won’t prevent inflation from falling The hikes in indirect taxes announced by the Turkish government over the past few weeks will not prevent inflation from falling further towards the end of this year. But even so, current account... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Business rate rises will become less painful Today’s consumer prices figures brought the news that RPI inflation in September – the rate which will be used to uprate business rates next April – was 2.6%. While this will be another chunky rise in... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook A lull in the storm Expectations of stronger policy support from the European Central Bank have prompted a period of relative calm in the euro-zone. But previous lulls have not lasted for very long. There are still few... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Oct.), EZ Trade & Final CPI (Aug./Sep.) October’s rise in the German ZEW index suggests that the prospect of ECB bond purchases has continued to ease investors’ fears for the economy. And August’s trade data suggest that the euro-zone as a... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) September’s fall in inflation took it within a whisker of its 2% target. Although this is likely to be the last drop for a while, we still expect the weakness of the economy to pull inflation... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Budget doesn’t solve Portugal’s problems On the face of it, Portugal’s Budget for 2013 will enable it to meet the deficit targets set by the Troika and receive the rest of its bail-out funds. But public resistance to austerity and/or a sharp... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) While the annual growth rates of the slightly narrower M1 and M2 monetary aggregates have slowed in recent months, the growth rate of our broader M3 measure has accelerated. Moreover, there is a good... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (2012Q3) Businesses are clearly more cautious about the outlook for sales and we think they are still too optimistic, especially now that the domestic economy looks vulnerable to a housing correction... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What will the MPC do as its gilts mature? At the start of next year, the MPC will have to decide what to do with those gilts purchased in its quantitative easing (QE) programme that are about to mature. We expect the Committee to maintain its... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold rally needs a new catalyst as QE boost fades We suspect that further gains for gold will require a new catalyst as the US dollar recovers more ground and inflation expectations drop back. But that catalyst is likely to come soon in the form of a... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will industrial rental value growth in Zurich outpace Geneva? Industrial rents seem to be more sensitive to changes in the Swiss economy in Geneva than in Zurich. And industrial rents in Geneva also look a little high compared to Zurich, at least relative to... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
