Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too gloomy on the outlook for Spanish retail rents? Weak prospects for Spain’s consumer sector suggest that retail occupier demand will deteriorate before the end of this year. That together with a development pipeline which is still growing makes us... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Do not dismiss positive message from real estate equities We doubt that any recovery in IPD all-property capital values will come quite as soon or be quite as strong as is currently indicated by real estate equity prices. But, equally, we would not be... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Sep. 12) It will be tempting to regard the September RICS survey as early evidence that the housing market is returning to life. But the improvement is relatively modest. And until the key drivers of the... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Sep.) September’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided more evidence that consumer spending may be showing some tentative signs of recovery. But whether this is the start of a sustained recovery on the high... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Oct.) The Capital Economics Argentina Activity Indicator points to a slight improvement in Argentine growth over the past month or so. Even so, we think that GDP probably contracted by around 1.5% y/y in Q3... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers' Survey (Sep. 12) The continued sharp fall in confidence revealed in the latest Economy Watchers’ Survey adds to the evidence that the economy contracted in the third quarter. The outlook component is equally weak... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Aug.) August’s German industrial production and trade figures suggest that, unlike most of the rest of the euro-zone, the economy is probably avoiding a recession for now. 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does the ECB have a strong case for buying Spanish bonds? If Spain applied to the EFSF/ESM for a (partial) sovereign bail-out, the path would become clear for the ECB to buy Spanish government bonds under its Outright Monetary Transmissions (OMT) programme... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Could Greece take advantage of a return to the drachma? The view of some commentators that a return to the drachma would be of little benefit to Greece because “it does not export much” is wide of the mark. Not only would an exit and devaluation improve... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF deal needed to stop the rot in Egypt Today’s data from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) showing that foreign currency reserves fell in September highlight the importance of an IMF backstop when talks take place at the end of this month. 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rand still has further to fall The South African rand has sold-off sharply in the past few days, but we think a combination of domestic political unrest, a challenging external environment, and a widening current account deficit... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are the fiscal rules about to be broken? There is a significant chance that the OBR will judge that the Chancellor is on course to miss at least one of his fiscal rules when it revises its forecasts for the Autumn Statement. Rather than... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chávez re-election to deepen Venezuela’s economic problems Hugo Chávez’s re-election as President of Venezuela is likely to result in a sharp sell-off in the bond market over the coming days and a 40-50% devaluation of the bolivar before year-end. More... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador's oil-fired boom running out of steam The latest data confirm that Ecuador’s recent commodity boom has faded in 2012. With elections looming early next year, the main risk is that attempts to revive growth via looser fiscal policy will... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sector insight: food In the near-term, we expect food sales to increase their share of overall consumer spending, in both nominal and real terms. Admittedly, the slowdown in food price inflation will bear down on values... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
