Asia Economics Weekly Singapore to loosen monetary policy next year The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left its policy settings unchanged on Friday, as inflation fears outweighed concerns over growth. However, we think inflation worries will dissipate over the... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Producer Prices (Sep.) & Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence shot up to a five-year high of 83.1 in October, from 78.3, but we're not convinced this upturn will lead to faster consumption growth. For a... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update No end in sight for global austerity Whether or not you believe the IMF’s new estimates of the fiscal multiplier, budget cuts are due to intensify in advanced economies next year and will last longer than many had expected. 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending and total social financing (Sep.) Unexpectedly weak bank lending in September was offset by strong growth in other forms of credit. But credit overall is not growing at a speed likely to fuel a significant economic rebound. 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3) Today’s RICS survey showed that occupier demand for property remained weak in Q3 and availability rose further. Of course, that is consistent with the weak economic backdrop. To us, the downside risks... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru keeps rates on hold as currency concerns resurface The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) kept interest rates at 4.25% last night and is unlikely to make any changes to its benchmark rate until well into 2013. Concerns about the strength of the... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African eurobonds: who is next in line? Sub-Saharan African (SSA) eurobond markets hit the headlines in September when Zambia’s debut $750mn 10yr bond issue, which was 15 times oversubscribed, became the most successful ever in the region... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s rise in euro-zone industrial production suggests that GDP is unlikely to have contracted as sharply as the more downbeat business surveys suggest in Q3 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household incomes facing renewed squeeze This week has brought some bad news regarding the outlook for households’ disposable incomes. That said, the renewed rise in food and energy prices should be smaller and more short-lived than the... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Parent bank deleveraging rumbles on The latest data suggest that parent banks in Western Europe have continued to scale back funding to subsidiaries in the east, with those in Hungary hit disproportionally hard. 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the output gap a crack or a chasm? There is currently a widespread view that, despite the economy’s prolonged weakness, spare capacity is limited. This judgement is the key factor driving the scale of fiscal consolidation, as well as... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US economic growth may be far from over In a new academic paper, Robert Gordon speculates that per capita economic growth in the US could permanently stagnate, as fading innovation is compounded by headwinds from demography, education... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA crop report suggests prices unsustainably high The gains in wheat, soybean and (especially) corn prices today may give the impression that the latest “World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates” published by the United States Department for... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy stimulus on the way in Korea The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.75% today, as expected. Growth has slowed sharply and is unlikely to rebound strongly anytime soon. With inflation set to remain low, there is... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Too soon to look for a housing market recovery Over the past few months, developments in the wider economy and the housing market have been broadly in line with our forecasts. Therefore, we have not made major adjustments to either our economic or... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
