UK Economic Outlook Government spending cuts - myth or reality? In our latest UK Quarterly Review, we look at the heated issue of the Government’s spending cuts. Are they responsible for killing off the economic recovery as some have claimed? Or are they the “bare... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Seasonal problems with the U6 unemployment rate Jack Welch's tweet wasn't the only piece of nonsense written last week about the reported decline in the unemployment rate to 7.8% in September. The decline in the standard measure was questioned by... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep. 12) September’s data show that inflationary pressures eased further in Egypt, with core inflation falling to a six-year low. But an interest rate cut is unlikely next week. 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fundamentals still point to rising property yields in Paris The recent rebound in French real estate equity prices suggests that our forecast for commercial property capital values in Paris to fall by a total of 15% to 20% in 2012-13 may be too pessimistic... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are emerging markets losing their competitive edge? Among the major emerging market (EM) regions, we estimate that Latin America has experienced the greatest loss of competitiveness over the past few years. In the medium term, weaker productivity... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia's credit growth a cause for concern? Russia stands out as the only economy in Emerging Europe currently experiencing rapid credit growth. In fact, the Central Bank is starting to worry about the risks of a credit bubble developing. We... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update IMF still overly optimistic on Canada The IMF's revised economic growth outlook for Canada, which anticipates a slight pick-up in 2013 annual GDP growth, looks in our view to be overly optimistic. As we forewarned, the global economic... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Don't bank on stock market gains once earnings start to fall The US Q2 earnings season kicks off today. The news is likely to be downbeat, with the annual growth rate of profits reportedly expected to be negative for the first time since 2009. In recent months... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's housing market: slowing but not stalling The surge in Brazilian property prices seen over the past few years appears to be slowing, but the housing market still looks significantly overvalued – perhaps by as much as 30-50%. In this month’s... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage interest rates drop further on QE3 The announcement of the third round of quantitative easing, during which the Fed will buy $40bn of mortgage-backed securities per month until the outlook for the labour market improves ‘substantially’... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Bank deleveraging behind the slump in financial flows While the net external financial surplus, which offsets the current account deficit, has remained broadly unchanged at around 3% of GDP over the past few years, the separate financial inflows and... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF still too optimistic about global recovery in 2013 The IMF has reduced its projection for global growth this year yet again, and is now getting close to the 3% forecast which we have stuck to since January. However, while the IMF has also reduced its... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bigger fiscal multipliers highlight case for rejigging cuts One of the most attention-grabbing aspects of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook is its new, bigger estimates of the impact of fiscal consolidations on economic growth. At the very least, this... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Hungary's austerity without growth isn’t working The raft of amendments to Hungary’s 2013 budget announced late last week contained not only fresh austerity measures, but also amended contentious policies that had previously been an obstacle to an... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Aug.) August’s weak industrial production and trade figures indicated that the underlying trend in GDP is flat at best and therefore undermined hopes that the “green shoots” of economic recovery are... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
