Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jul. 2026) The unchanged GDP reading in July and small projected rise in August should mean GDP growth slowed to around 1.4% annualised in the third quarter, given the weakness we expect this month amid the hit... 29th September 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update US-China tariff tweaks don’t change the bigger picture The US and China have announced significant tariff cuts on goods covered by the new bilateral Board of Trade. But the scheme only covers “non-sensitive” goods that make up a small share of China’s... 28th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Treasury sell-off looks overdone The surge in the 10-year Treasury yield to ~5.25% reflects higher oil prices and a strong US economy more than AI debt issuance or fiscal concerns. We continue to forecast this yield to fall this year... 28th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily There are still reasons for optimism on US Treasuries Our base case remains that the Treasury rout will eventually turn into a rally, even though the risks of an even deeper sell-off are clearly growing. 28th September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly The Fed is unlikely to go as far as markets expect While the commentary from Fed officials this week suggests there is broad agreement on the FOMC that it has more near-term work to do, we are not convinced that the committee will tighten policy by as... 25th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly How much excess capacity actually is there? Signs that the output gap could be widening suggest firms will continue to struggle to pass on higher input costs to consumers. This supports our view that investors have gotten ahead of themselves in... 25th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Two points for markets on the US-China trade talks We think the contentious US-China trade negotiations are much more important for Chinese equities than US ones. Meanwhile, the current backdrop favours a further renminbi rally. 25th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack Q3 2026 All-property capital values continue to hold up. But valuations already looked stretched prior to bond yield rises seen in recent weeks. With confidence in the recovery sagging, the outlook for... 24th September 2026 · 0 mins read
US Economic Outlook Strong growth and firm inflation to prompt more hikes The ongoing strength in AI investment should help to offset the hit to real incomes from the renewed rise in fuel prices, resulting in above-consensus GDP growth of 2.5% next year. That will lead to... 24th September 2026 · 17 mins read
Bonds Focus AI debt boom: implications for Treasuries and corporate bonds Corporate bond issuance by AI-related firms has surged over the past year, particularly at the long end of the curve. This could push up Treasury term premia before long if it continues at this rate... 24th September 2026 · 9 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Improving surveys bode well for payrolls The improvement in the survey indicators bodes well for hiring in September, while payrolls should also benefit from a reversal of the seasonal effects that weighed on hiring at the start of the... 24th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jul. 2026) The larger-than-expected 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in July isn’t the end of the world, given the advance indicator implies that sales volumes fully rebounded in August, but consumer... 24th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update Solving the US debt problem could be bad for Treasuries It’s a misconception that lower Treasury yields are essential to solving the US debt problem. Admittedly, Treasury yields may fall if, as we saw in the 1990s, the solution mainly involves fiscal... 24th September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus How might a US fiscal crisis play out? The ideal solution to the unsustainable fiscal situation is that Congress commits to a gradual fiscal adjustment. But as that seems unlikely, the big risk is that the Fed eventually finds itself in a... 23rd September 2026 · 23 mins read
US Housing Market Update Higher rates and tariffs to continue to limit homebuilding The renewed rise in mortgage rates reinforces our view that housing starts will fall further in the coming years, keeping downward pressure on residential investment. This does not imply an impending... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update US export ban would add fuel to the diesel crisis A ban on diesel exports by the US would exacerbate the existing severe strains in the global diesel market and drive prices outside of the US even higher in the short term. Nonetheless, given that a... 23rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
