Equities Focus Most indicators suggest the AI equity boom is nearing an end Looking across a range of equity market “bubble” indicators supports our view that while the S&P 500’s rally has further to run this year, its medium-term prospects are poor given how frothy the... 10th September 2026 · 10 mins read
Global Commercial Property Focus Which global self-storage markets are ready for blast off? The Nordics and Switzerland stand out amongst a set of 19 global self-storage markets for their potential growth over the next 5-10 years. These markets will see a reasonably high rate of home-moving... 9th September 2026 · 12 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump ups the ante with import ban on Canada President Trump’s import ban covers only 0.25% of Canada’s exports to the US and will have little effect on either economy. Nonetheless, Trump’s willingness to impose an import ban is further evidence... 9th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect a rally, not just a rotation The strong performance of semiconductor stocks since OpenAI’s announcement of GPT-6 last week hasn’t lifted the S&P 500 index much, partly because of offsetting weakness in software stocks. But a... 8th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q3 26 PREA consensus for 2027 shows little sector variance There was another cut to the PREA consensus forecast for 2026, led again by residential. But the all-property forecast for 2027 saw no change and there is very little differentiation between five of... 8th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Respite for bonds may be limited and uneven We expect German bunds to fare well in the medium term, almost regardless of what the ECB says this week. But US Treasuries aren’t likely to get the same relief. 7th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls resurgence strengthens the case for a dollar rebound The sharp rebound in US non-farm payrolls in August means that FOMC rate hikes may come sooner rather than later. In turn, that points to a rebound in the US dollar and further upwards pressure on US... 4th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada joins the hawks The Bank of Canada delivered a hawkish message this week, but the latest labour market data suggest that it will be in no rush to normalise policy. 4th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Is the Fed destined to be behind the curve? The economic indicators this week suggest that the economy and labour market are humming along while firms are increasingly concerned about inflation risks. Nonetheless, the communications from Fed... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Aug. 2026) The sharp 41,700 fall in employment in August and further slowdown in wage growth pushes back against the idea that the economy has decisively turned a corner, and leaves the Bank of Canada’s hawkish... 4th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Aug 2026) Even the most committed dove would struggle to find much in the August employment report to justify keeping interest rates unchanged, with the surge in payrolls driven by strength across the non... 4th September 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China AI gap widens again The release of several new US models this week has pushed Chinese AI further away from the frontier. US AI labs appear to be eroding China's cost advantage too. But it is too soon to conclude that... 4th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The threat from bonds to equities We doubt the Treasury market will be the straw that breaks the US stock market’s back. Admittedly, higher government bond yields started to weigh on equities there earlier this week. But the S&P 500... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s tolerance for above-target inflation close to the limit While the Fed’s inflation misses over the past two years are primarily due to unanticipated shocks, the FOMC has arguably also become more accepting of above-target inflation as it seeks to balance... 3rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Aug 2026) The rise in the ISM services index in August suggests that the prior strength in July was not only due to temporary effects from the FIFA World Cup, and leaves our weighted-average ISM index... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (July 2026) The sharp narrowing of the goods trade surplus in July was not only a price effect from lower energy and metal prices, as export volumes fell too, implying that net trade was a drag on GDP at the... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
