US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jul 2026) The sharp widening of the trade deficit in July was primarily due to sharp rebounds in AI-related goods imports, pouring cold water on the idea that the AI buildout may already be losing momentum and... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The global bond rout and the dollar Despite falling back a bit today, the dollar generally seems to have benefitted from the recent rout in bonds. Its fortunes could change eventually, though, after the bubble in AI bursts. 2nd September 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s hawkish message brings 2026 hike into play The Bank of Canada delivered a more hawkish message today, saying “the upside risks to inflation have increased” and that it is “prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed”. We do not view this as a... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook San Jose edges Houston for top spot in our rankings Apartment markets have started to fare slightly better this year as inventory growth has eased, and we expect this trend to continue. We expect absorption to outpace new supply by a wide margin in... 2nd September 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep. 2026) The Bank of Canada delivered a more hawkish message alongside its policy rate announcement today, noting that “the upside risks to inflation have increased” and it is “prepared to adjust monetary... 2nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Aug 2026) The ISM Manufacturing survey pours some cold water on the idea that the manufacturing sector is beginning to boom, but it does at least remain consistent with growing output. The commentary... 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Flattening yield curves, CAPE nears dotcom extremes We don’t expect lasting relief for short-dated Treasuries, although we expect those in Europe to fare better over time. Meanwhile, our base case remains that the equity market has further to rise... 31st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Reassurance from Warsh gives the dollar a boost Fed Chair Warsh’s much-anticipated keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium has allayed some of the confusion caused by his post-FOMC remarks a month ago. More clarity around his approach to both... 28th August 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Warsh strikes a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole Kevin Warsh was uncharacteristically loose-lipped in his keynote address at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium , unequivocally indicating that he would be prepared to tighten policy if... 28th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trade dispute overshadows good news on GDP News that the economy rebounded by a strong 3.3% annualised last quarter will be overshadowed by the fallout from the breakdown in trade negotiations with the US. The biggest risk is that tariffs... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole & Preliminary Benchmark Revisions Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium delivered a far clearer – and hawkish – message than his last press conference appearance, with Warsh arguing that the recent softer price... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q2 2026 and Jun.) The breakdown of second-quarter GDP growth was even better than the solid 3.3% annualised gain might suggest, although the preliminary estimate of unchanged GDP in July and the headwinds from new US... 28th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Venezuela oil deal? If the US gains access to greater reserves of heavy-sour crude from Venezuela, it could reduce the US’s reliance on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico. However, any deal would need to involve... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch New tariff uncertainty supports Bank’s calls to be patient The Bank of Canada will likely highlight the need to balance the worsening growth and inflation prospects brought about by fresh tariffs at next week’s meeting. We therefore still expect the policy... 27th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Can Canada become an oil and LNG superpower? The Canadian government has significantly shifted tack over recent years and now wants to double down on the country’s status as a net energy exporter by supporting large-scale oil and LNG... 27th August 2026 · 17 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Temporary Payroll Shock There is scope for some of the weakness in July’s employment report to reverse, but the administration’s decision to revoke Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for roughly 350,000 people in late July is... 27th August 2026 · 4 mins read
