Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) GDP growth looks to have lost some momentum in the third quarter, and headwinds from new tariffs and ongoing CUSMA uncertainty will weigh on activity over the next few quarters. While most measures of... 26th October 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Tech earnings vs central bank caution A hectic week for politics, central banks and corporate earnings reports may well be dominated by continued jitters around the sustainability of the AI equity boom. Over the past couple of weeks, they... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly The midterms don’t mean enough for Ottawa to interfere Accusations that Ottawa is meddling in the upcoming midterm elections are unfounded given that which party holds Congress from next year will have little bearing on the state of the trading... 23rd October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fall in yields won’t necessarily reduce the debt burden While this week's fall in bond yields will be a welcome development for the Treasury, it doesn't mean that fiscal risks have diminished. Yields are still higher than they were just a few months ago... 23rd October 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Average firm unlikely to shrug off an AI bust Most firms in the S&P 500 have so far managed to shrug off the falls in tech stocks over recent days, thanks in large part to a boost from falling Treasury yields. But we expect tech stocks, non-tech... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Aug. 2026) The broad-based rise in retail sales in August largely reflects a rebound from July rather than a genuine strengthening in consumer demand, though there were still signs in the data that households... 23rd October 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly China’s long chase after the US AI Goliath China’s AI computing capacity is expanding rapidly, but the gap with the US remains substantial and could widen further. Chinese AI models are likely to remain competitive. But limited access to... 23rd October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to sit tight in October Although the latest hot inflation readings and rise in inflation expectations will concern Fed officials, they still appear broadly intent on tightening policy at a measured pace. We therefore expect... 22nd October 2026 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily The macroeconomic limitations on S&P 500 earnings growth Although S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) have grown far more quickly than the US economy since the start of the AI revolution, this isn’t bound to last even if Q3 2026 is another bumper earnings... 22nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to finally hike with inflation risks too great to ignore The shift in the Bank of Canada’s language towards emphasising inflation risks from higher oil prices and downplaying the growth impact of new tariffs suggests a 25bp hike, to 2.50%, is finally on the... 22nd October 2026 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) Strong AI-related investment and resilient consumption should cause GDP growth to rebound in the third quarter and maintain a growth rate of about 2.5% in the coming year. Despite the recent slowdown... 22nd October 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US oil producers adopting a cautious supply response The lack of an aggressive supply response from US oil producers reflects uncertainty over the price outlook and large producers’ preference for returning higher free cash flow to investors. Looking... 21st October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update US Pending Home Sales & Mortgage Apps. (Sep. 2026) The surge in mortgage rates in recent months has brought housing activity to a standstill, as shown by the collapse in pending home sales in September to their lowest level since the series began. 20th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Sep. 2026) The sharp decline in both single- and multifamily housing starts in September reflects homebuilders’ reluctance to start new projects amid the latest surge in mortgage rates, which will continue to... 20th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update AI bust to drive Treasury yields lower Having already driven the US stock market over recent years, the AI theme is increasingly driving the Treasury market too. We expect this to remain the case over the coming year: we forecast a plunge... 20th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys underscore policy dilemma The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys show renewed trade tensions have disrupted the recovery, with a stark contrast in sentiment between firms surveyed before and after new tariffs were... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
