US Economics Update How much is AI-related activity boosting GDP? We estimate that direct AI investment effects have contributed 0.3%-points to GDP growth over the past year while the wealth effects on consumption have been of a similar size. If equity values fall... 13th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Treasury yields to fall further, eventually We continue to expect Treasury yields to fall further, although the inflation picture and Fed may be stiff near-term headwinds. 12th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Commercial Property Lending (Sep.) 9th October 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak loonie further complicates the Bank’s task This week's fall in Canada's nominal effective exchange rate to its lowest level since the 2016 oil price crash might, at the margin, make Governing Council more reluctant to lean too dovish at... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation risks keep more Fed hikes in play The latest data and Fedspeak suggest there is upside risk to our forecast that the Fed will hike interest rates twice more, by a total 50 bp, in the coming six months. 9th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep. 2026) Large back-to-back employment declines in August and September, alongside a tick up in the unemployment rate to 6.5%, mean it will take a big upside surprise in the September CPI release in a couple... 9th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly G7’s oil plans are more peashooter than bazooka While the recent joint statement by the G7 succeeded in taking oil product export bans off the table for now , it stopped short of providing an additional boost to global petroleum supplies over and... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Flat yield curves are here to stay We don’t expect most major government yield curves to steepen much further in the medium term, despite the apparent recent rise in term premia. 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chart Pack (October 2026) Higher interest rates are set to drag on global property values in the coming year, especially in lower-yielding euro-zone and APAC. US property values are likely to be most resilient this year but we... 8th October 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily How the yen found its feet amid the bond sell-off The yen has, surprisingly, been one of the best performers this year amid the rise in bond yields; we think it will fare even better once they fall back. 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Sep. 15-16) The minutes of the FOMC meeting that concluded on 16th September confirm broad support for raising the target range at that meeting, as well as further tightening down the line. However, given the... 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Increasingly narrow equity rally rings alarm bells The strong performance of the IT sector has helped to drag the S&P 500 index to a new all-time high today. But this stock market rally looks narrow even by recent standards – the average firm in the... 6th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Aug. 2026) The widening of the trade deficit in August on the back of a sharp rise in imports suggests third quarter GDP growth will be well below our current forecast of 4.0%. 6th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Aug. 2026) The rebound in the goods trade surplus in August, to its joint-highest since the start of 2025, owes a fair bit to higher oil prices and frontrunning ahead of Section 338 tariffs. While it provides... 6th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Tariffs likely to far outlast Trump The precarious fiscal situation means the next administration will be in no rush to remove the tariffs that are in place at the end of President Trump’s term. Nonetheless, under most future scenarios... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Sep. 2026) The small fall in the ISM services index leaves our activity-weighted composite index consistent with GDP growth of around 2.5% in the third quarter, while its S&P Global counterpart points to an even... 5th October 2026 · 2 mins read
