Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) The easing in core price pressures back to a roughly target-consistent rate, paired with recent weak Labour Force Surveys, should keep the Bank of Canada from hiking next week despite Governor Tiff... 19th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Tech tumbles, but it’s good news for Treasuries We don’t think the AI bubble has burst yet, but if tech does come under further pressure it might not immediately spread to the rest of the market. Meanwhile, we remain upbeat on Treasuries. 19th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation risks show little sign of abating The September CPI and PPI data delivered a decidedly “discouraging” message for the Fed, to use Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee’s words, with core inflation on both measures surprising to the... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Impacts of renewed trade war mixed so far The recent downturn in the manufacturing sector is not entirely attributable to the US' new Section 338 tariffs, though timelier data on new orders suggest there could be more downside yet to be felt. 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Treasuries could hedge AI bust even if oil prices rise So far this year, long-dated Treasuries have been a poor hedge against AI wobbles when this has coincided with rising oil prices. But we think they would fare well if the AI boom turned to bust as we... 16th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Sep. 2026) The rebound in manufacturing output in September will ease jitters around August’s unexpected fall. While the strength of the AI buildout looks to be masking weakness in other areas feeling the bite... 16th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch. (Oct. 2026) The rise in mortgage rates has sent the housing market into reverse, with sales and prices both falling in September. The near-term risks to mortgage rates lie to the upside, which means prices could... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Another positioning shakeout or the beginning of the end? Hot US inflation data over the past couple of days have been overshadowed by renewed questions around the sustainability of the AI boom. With both equities and Treasury yields dropping sharply for the... 15th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update How would Canada fare without Quebec and Alberta? The blow to GDP from the loss of Quebec industry and Alberta’s oil and gas sector could be mediated somewhat by continued free trade, firms relocating from the seceding provinces to the rest of Canada... 15th October 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Sep. 2026) The muted rise in control group retail sales suggests that real consumption was little changed in September. While that still leaves real GDP growth on track to rise to a little over 3% annualised in... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug. 2026) The rebound in manufacturing sales in August was purely down to price effects, with volumes unchanged as new Section 338 tariffs began to weigh on the factory sector. Combined with a sharp contraction... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Sep. 2026) The upside surprise in producer prices in September was driven in part by the components that feed directly through to the core PCE deflator, with our estimate now pointing to a 0.35% m/m gain. That... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Hot inflation raises risk of higher yields for longer Hot US inflation data has put an October Fed hike back on the cards and sparked a dual sell-off in stocks and bonds. Our base case is for both to rally into year-end, but today’s news is another sign... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Retail and office face biggest downgrades to 2027 outlook Despite the recent run-up in Treasury yields, we aren’t expecting a major impact on commercial real estate cap rates as we anticipate this will be merely a short-term spike in bond yields. But... 14th October 2026 · 20 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) The upside surprise to core CPI in September was broad-based rather than due to any obvious temporary factors, therefore bringing an October rate hike back into play and presenting upside risks to our... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2026) While existing home sales edged up in September, the bigger picture is that they remain below the 4m annualised mark associated with a very weak market, weighed down by elevated mortgage rates... 13th October 2026 · 2 mins read
