Bonds & Equities What the US midterms might mean for markets The main risks for financial markets from the midterms are a contested election outcome, emboldened Democrats pushing for Trump’s impeachment, and concerns about a leftward shift by the Democratic... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Red flags flying in the bond market? The recent steepening of the yield curve is arguably a cause for concern, but our base case remains that long-dated yields will fall back. 5th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed can afford to be patient Both this week’s economic data and Fed commentary skewed dovish on balance, pushing back against the idea that the Fed will move again in October. 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher yields add to the headwinds for consumers Higher yields are only a modest headwind for consumers but, at a time when real income growth is already slowing, they are another reason to expect weaker consumer spending growth in the coming... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Equities need a bond rally more than it seems The surge in Treasury yields has put equities under more pressure than headline returns may suggest. If yields remain high much longer or rise further, more serious cracks may soon emerge in the stock... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Sep. 2026) The softer payroll gain and tick up in the unemployment rate in September is not enough to spoil the image of a labour market which is broadly performing well, though it has helped trim investors’... 2nd October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) With 30-year fixed mortgage rates now at a near three-year high of 7.3%, the near-term outlook for home sales and prices remains weak. However, we expect things to improve from next year as energy... 1st October 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Credit markets are feeling the pain The S&P 500 may have largely withstood the surge in Treasury yields so far but US corporate bonds have not been so lucky. And we suspect credit spreads will rise further over the coming year or so. 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Sep. 2026) The small fall in the ISM Manufacturing Index to 54.5 in September, paired with the downward revision to the flash estimate of its S&P Global counterpart, gives a slightly less favourable impression... 1st October 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Self-storage, SFR and senior living offer the greatest potential Alternatives with strong secular drivers are well placed to deliver robust demand growth, with those that are less institutionalised – such as self-storage, single-family rental and senior living –... 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Downside growth risks to limit rate hikes Trade uncertainty and lower immigration will limit GDP growth to 1.5% next year, keeping core inflation from drifting too far back above target. Accordingly, the Bank of Canada will only hike twice... 30th September 2026 · 14 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Aug. 2026) The data dump today shows that core price pressures are slightly less firm than feared and provides some support to our view that the Fed will pause in October. Nonetheless, with economic activity... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Weathering the energy shock We expect the global economy to remain resilient in the face of the energy shock. In Asia, many governments will continue to shield their economies from the worst of higher energy prices. In most DMs... 30th September 2026 · 46 mins read
Capital Daily Where to hide from the bond market rout Most assets would be affected if US yields continued to rise, but some – including bonds in economies with less-ingrained price pressures and weak currencies – might be the best of a bad bunch. 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Equity resilience to bond yield surge won’t last forever While bond markets have been largely in hock to energy prices over recent weeks, headline equity indices have generally held up well in the face of surging bond yields. In large part, that reflects... 29th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul. 2026) House prices remained resilient in July but will eventually come under pressure as the latest rise in mortgage rates to their current level of 7.1% takes a toll. We expect prices to be unchanged over... 29th September 2026 · 2 mins read
