Commodities Focus What to make of broadening US energy dominance? The US is evolving from an oil superpower into a broader energy superpower, increasingly underpinned by gaseous fuels such as natural gas and LNG. In addition to increasing the US’s control over... 29th October 2026 · 17 mins read
US Economics Update Payrolls to bounce back from post-summer slump The latest labour market indicators continue to portray a low-hire, low-hire environment. Accordingly, we’re forecasting a 70,000 rise in payrolls and a tick down in the unemployment rate to 4.1% in... 29th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Sep. 2026) & GDP (Q3 2026) The strong Q3 GDP and September PCE outturns validate the Fed’s assessment that economic activity is strong and price pressures remain elevated. That said, the slowdown in consumer spending in... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Equities Update Can blockbuster S&P 500 EPS growth continue? Our base case is that the surge in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) since the start of the AI revolution won’t continue next year. Indeed, we suspect it will partly reverse, undermining the index in... 29th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Where to hide in equities if the AI boom turns to bust Energy and financials have fared well in tech selloffs over recent years, but we doubt they would continue to do so if the AI boom turned to bust. Traditional defensive sectors remain the best bet in... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Tech’s growing vulnerability to rising yields Tech companies’ spending boom has arguably made them more vulnerable to borrowing costs, and they won’t get much relief from the Fed if the recent meeting is anything to go by. Our base case remains... 29th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Warsh reforms to enter a new phase next year While today’s decision by the FOMC to leave interest rates unchanged was accompanied by two hawkish dissents, this was not a huge surprise, only confirming our strong suspicion ahead of the meeting... 28th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Oct. 2026) Officials urged a gradualist approach to tightening during the inter-meeting period, and this was reflected in today’s decision to leave the fed funds target range unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%. That said... 28th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada embarks on a cautious hiking cycle The conservative messaging surrounding the Bank of Canada’s decision to raise the policy rate supports our view that investors are being overly presumptuous in expecting three further hikes. We still... 28th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Oct. 2026) The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise the policy rate shows the balance of risks has now tipped towards the threat of energy-driven inflation over the downside risks from trade tensions. The Bank... 28th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Apartment rental growth on track for a steady recovery Early indications point to a tightening in the apartment market now that the post-pandemic supply boom has run its course. We expect asking rent growth to recover steadily, reaching 3% p.a. in 2027-28... 27th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q3 2026: Residential showing signs of weakness Quarterly total returns of 1.4% on the NPI were again driven almost entirely by the income component, as capital values nudged only slightly higher in Q3. There are signs of growing sector... 27th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2026) Although house prices posted another healthy rise in August, momentum will quickly fade as the backward-looking price indices begin to capture the recent collapse in housing demand in response to... 27th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update France's fiscal warning to the rest of the world The sell-off in French bonds is a warning for governments elsewhere, but we doubt it is the start of a broad fiscal crisis. Few advanced economies have comparably poor fiscal arithmetic, and those... 27th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Iran cost shock to hit office and retail development hardest Construction costs are likely to rise by 5% or more due to the Iran war, far less than the 17% increase brought about by the Ukraine war. Nevertheless, that will impact on an already weak development... 26th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Will the drop in equities limit the scale of Fed hikes? Despite higher bond yields, strong equity price gains are keeping overall financial conditions supportive of economic activity. The equity market correction we expect next year should prevent the Fed... 26th October 2026 · 5 mins read
