Global Economics Focus Are policymakers going soft on inflation? Recent and prospective changes in the conduct of monetary policy suggest that policymakers may be willing to take slightly greater risks with inflation than they were previously. But we expect... 22nd March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update High food inflation could lead to subsidy reform slippage Food inflation in the resource-poor Arab countries should peak in the coming months, albeit at high rates, before falling back in early 2014. But in the near-term, the risk that high inflation... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.) UK CPI inflation broke its recent stable run to rise from 2.7% to 2.8% in February. Inflation is likely to pick up further in the near-term. However, the MPC has indicated that it will “look through”... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market inflation pressures won't amount to much The current signs of inflationary pressure in the labour market will probably amount to nothing. Although we are mindful that accelerating earnings growth could be an early indication that... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation outlook remains benign Inflation has been on a downtrend trend across most of Asia over the past year, allowing central banks to keep monetary policy loose to support domestic demand. In this Weekly we assess the outlook... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb. 13) Aside from the rise in gasoline prices, which is now being reversed, it is hard to find any evidence of major consumer price pressures in the economy. This will allow the Fed to maintain its attack on... 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final CPI (Feb.) & Labour Costs (Q4) The latest figures on consumer prices and labour costs in the euro-zone emphasised that the inflation outlook presents no obstacles to the provision of further policy support from the ECB. 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian policymakers still waiting for inflation to fall The high rate of inflation continues to prevent the Central Bank of Russia from easing policy to support the slowing economy. But with inflation now close to peaking, interest rate cuts are possible... 15th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Uptick in Indian inflation unlikely to impede rate cut Higher-than-expected wholesale price inflation in India has raised some doubts about whether policy easing is imminent. However, a closer look at today’s data shows that core inflation has dropped to... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is stagflation the next threat to property values? If growing fears of a sustained rise in inflation proved well founded, this will present another obstacle to a meaningful recovery in commercial property values. But a repeat of the 1970s experience... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB ready to do more if deflation risks rise The Swiss National Bank pledged to maintain its extremely supportive policy stance today, keeping interest rates as close to zero as possible and defending its exchange rate ceiling. But even at the... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will continue to push back rate hikes The Norges Bank’s decision to leave the policy rate unchanged reflects the dilemma facing the Bank as a strong currency prevents it from hiking rates to stem a housing boom. These countervailing... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Lower inflation may further delay return to fiscal balance Concerns about when governments will meet their budget deficit elimination goals have mostly centred on rosy consensus real GDP growth forecasts. But lower inflation could also result in even longer... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Switch to CPIH could form part of framework changes Two new inflation measures, CPIH and RPIJ, are being introduced this month. A switch in the targeted measure of inflation could be part of any shake-up of the monetary framework, although it is likely... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's industrial recovery remains fragile, rate cut likely Better-than-expected industrial production data have provided some cause for market cheer in India. However, a close look at the data underlines how fragile the recovery remains. We continue to expect... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economic rebound may already be stalling The weekend’s data releases suggest that China’s economic rebound is faltering sooner than expected, even by relative pessimists such as ourselves. 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
