UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) Continued high inflation is maintaining the squeeze on consumers’ spending power in the run-up to Christmas. Although we still expect inflation to fall back eventually, the prospect of further utility... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Nov. 12) The drop back in inflation below the 2% target in November will allow the Fed to continue focusing its efforts on boosting the real economy. This is just as well when, after stripping out the effect... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.), Final CPI (Nov.) & Emp. (Q3) Despite rising for a second month running in December, the euro-zone composite PMI remained well below the “no-change” level, consistent with a deepening recession in Q4. 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set to weaken further in 2013 Inflation is falling sharply across Central and South Eastern Europe and we expect this to continue into next year. This should encourage further policy stimulus in the Czech Republic and Poland... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: a weak start to Q4 A slew of data released this morning indicate that after slowing sharply in Q3, the South African economy got off to a poor start in Q4. But with inflation likely to accelerate further in the coming... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is it time to inject some reality into inflation targeting? Inflation continues to be boosted by external factors over which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) can exercise little influence. One way to give the MPC more scope to help the economy could be to... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What to expect from emerging markets in 2013 Emerging markets (EMs) will remain a relative bright spot in 2013. But with export demand from the developed world likely to remain subdued and structural problems dragging on growth in many of the... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Signs economic recovery is faltering Today’s disappointing trade data have added to our doubts about the sustainability of China’s rebound. The weekend’s figures on investment and industrial production were more encouraging but they... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How big a threat is inflation to emerging markets? Inflation is unlikely to be a major threat to most emerging markets in 2013. The two exceptions to this are Venezuela and Argentina, where high inflation will put downward pressure on their currencies... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) China’s consumer price inflation is picking up and could spike much higher around February’s Chinese New Year holiday. It will be higher than today once that seasonal distortion passes, but we don’t... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf overheating fears fail to materialise The massive fiscal stimulus packages unveiled by Gulf economies in the wake of the Arab Spring raised fears at the time that they would lead to economic overheating and rising inflation. Fortunately... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would exiting countries fare outside the euro-zone? Contrary to some suggestions, there are good reasons to think that, beyond the initial economic andfinancial disruption caused by an exit from the euro-zone, most of the current peripheral... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Oct.) & Flash CPI (Nov.) The latest news on the euro-zone labour market and inflation further underlined the general weakness of the region’s economy. 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are the one-offs boosting inflation really one-offs? The Bank of England continues to argue that inflation is being kept high by a series of one-off factors. Many of the “idiosyncratic” factors boosting inflation at the moment may prove to be more than... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Housing recovery an upside risk to inflation Unless the housing recovery proves to be much stronger than we expect, it won’t provide a worrying boost to core CPI inflation. Nonetheless, the housing market poses an upside risk to our view that... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct. 12) Although core inflation, which remained at 1.3% in October, was slightly firmer than the consensus forecast of 1.2%, it remains well below the 2% policy target. Given the third-quarter economic... 23rd November 2012 · 1 min read
