Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May 13) & Unemployment (Apr. 13) April’s rise in unemployment and the fact inflation remained well below target in May will add to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support. 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery now being held back by fiscal tightening The US recovery has, up to now, remained lacklustre, but there are signs that this extended malaise could finally give way to a period of more vigorous growth. We expect GDP growth to accelerate from... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland won’t unfreeze capital flows anytime soon Five years since they were implemented, Iceland still relies on ‘temporary’ capital controls to support its currency. And they are likely to remain in place for some time yet despite the new... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Don't be fooled by April's inflation figures April’s sharp fall in CPI inflation led some to quickly conclude that this would be enough on its own to prompt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) into action. But a closer look at the figures... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation outlook benign As the distortions surrounding Chinese New Year have fallen out of the data, the underlying picture across Emerging Markets is one of weak price pressures. Looking ahead, there are few signs that... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) April’s drop in inflation has provided some welcome, albeit temporary, relief to households’ budgets. While CPI inflation still looks set to climb in the coming months, we continue to expect it to... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Apr.) The official core inflation figure, which declined to a slightly lower than expected 1.1% in April from 1.4% in the previous month, might slip below its target range as economic growth disappoints... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Further falls in core inflation may make some Fed officials concerned about the possibility of very low inflation, or even deflation. This could mean we are jumping the gun a bit by expecting the Fed... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: time to come clean on inflation? Argentina remains on a collision course with the IMF over the accuracy of its consumer price data. The Fund has threatened to impose sanctions if corrective measures are not taken by 29th September... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) & Final CPI (Apr.) While March’s euro-zone trade data are certainly encouraging, we remain sceptical that the sector can single-handedly drag the euro-zone and, in particular, the peripheral economies out of recession. 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Apr.) The delayed effects of previous falls in commodity prices and signs of a further easing in industrial activity will continue to weigh on pipeline price pressures. Over the next year at least... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (May) The latest Inflation Report indicated that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has become a bit more optimistic on the growth outlook. This, alongside its continued expectation of a further rise in... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Lower Indian inflation unlikely to result in imminent rate cut The continuing slide in India’s wholesale price inflation will come as a relief to policymakers, but expectations of another near-term rate cut are likely to be disappointed. The RBI will want to see... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Benign inflation outlook supports case for loose policy Weak commodity prices and a faltering global recovery suggest that inflation in advanced economies is likely to remain very low for the foreseeable future. This will support the case for continued... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What can Uruguay do to bring inflation down? Contrary to popular belief, Uruguay’s stubbornly high inflation rate is partly structural in nature and not simply the result of overheated demand. Bringing inflation down permanently will require far... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) The pick-up in headline consumer price inflation in April was driven by a rebound in vegetable prices, which should be short-lived. But headline inflation is still likely to edge higher over the... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
