Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Apr.) & Euro-zone Final CPI (Mar.) April’s fall in the German ZEW index highlighted investors’ fears that the German recovery will falter amid continued concerns about the euro-zone’s periphery. 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.) While CPI inflation rate was unchanged at 2.8% in March, it still looks set to climb over the summer. Nonetheless, the recent fall in oil prices has brightened the outlook for inflation further ahead. 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak inflation to trigger further Polish rate cut The weakness of the latest inflation data across Central Europe should allow further loosening of monetary policy, even in Poland, where we have now pencilled in a 25bp rate cut later this year. 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Drop in inflation does not clear the way for a policy rate cut Last month’s drop in India’s wholesale price inflation will have come as a relief to policymakers who have been trying, with limited success, to lower inflation over the last three years. Market... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Mar.) The surprise fall in retail sales in March adds to other evidence that the US economy is experiencing another spring slowdown. But we doubt that the easing in economic growth in the coming quarters... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Falls in grain prices to help keep global inflation subdued The recent declines in the prices of US grains and oilseeds have received much less media attention than the surge last summer, but they have now reversed most of those gains. Admittedly, the prices... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest inflation rise tips balance in favour of Brazil rate hike Brazilian inflation breached the upper bound of its target range last month, tipping the balance in favour of a hike in the benchmark Selic interest rate at next week’s COPOM meeting. Nonetheless, it... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation still on course to reach double digits Egyptian inflation edged down in March, but it has still risen sharply since the end of last year and we think it will reach double digits over the coming months. The irony is that the recent spike in... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in headline inflation in March simply reflects the usual seasonal patterns stemming from the Chinese New Year. Looking ahead, inflation is likely to pick up again soon on... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The hare and the tortoise As the UK struggles to grow, she can only look on with envy at the budding recovery in the US. The UK will continue to lag behind for the foreseeable future. But further ahead, she should be able to... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.) Consumer price inflation should have dropped back last month as the seasonal distortion caused by Chinese New Year faded. Looking ahead though, recent falls in pig numbers signal that another pork... 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian inflation? Various changes to regulated prices, coupled with general uncertainty over the path of food inflation, mean that it has become increasingly difficult to predict month-to-month changes in Brazilian... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ sets high bar to establish credibility By committing today to meet a 2% inflation target in two years, Governor Kuroda can justifiably claim to have set the Bank of Japan on a new path. But while markets have welcomed the announcement, the... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar. 13) While headline euro-zone inflation fell again in March, there were some signs of a rise in core price pressures. But these are likely to prove temporary. 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) The stronger than expected pick-up in headline inflation to 1.2% in February, from 0.5% in January, mostly reflects higher gasoline and motor vehicle prices. It does not alter the near-term outlook... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rise in inflation to be limited Emerging market inflation has risen in recent months and is set to continue along this upward path in the near future. Looking further ahead, however, weak core price pressures combined with the fact... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
