US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Dec. 12) Inflation dipped further below the Fed's 2% target in December, leaving it free to focus its policy efforts on reducing the still elevated unemployment rate. 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Dec. 12) The apparent strength of retail sales growth over the final few months of last year suggests that the looming fiscal cliff, including the risk of higher taxes, did little to deter consumers over the... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to rise - but not just because of the pound Fears that the recent fall in the Egyptian pound will lead to a sharp rise in inflation are overplayed. Instead, tax hikes and subsidy cuts are likely to have a much greater impact on headline... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) Inflation held at 2.7% in December, marking the third full year of above-target price rises. Inflation is likely to stay close to this rate in the near-term, pushing real pay down further this year... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Latest data support case for rate cut in India India’s growth rate, rather than rebounding as many hoped, may be stabilising at a low level. But the latest fall in underlying inflation does at least provide a green light for the central bank to... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Freezing weather drove food prices and inflation higher last month but, as we head into the Chinese New Year period, underlying price pressures appear subdued. 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation could rise above 6% The rise in Brazilian inflation last month is particularly worrying since it came despite a moderation in food inflation. With plans to cut electricity tariffs now under threat from a drought that has... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update RPI inflation should still fall despite lack of reforms Given that the National Statistician has decided not to alter the way RPI inflation is measured, the RPI rate will continue to run above the CPI measure for the foreseeable future. However, we still... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Final Composite PMI (Dec. 12) The news that both activity and inflation in the euro-zone remained subdued at the end of last year will increase the pressure on the European Central Bank to provide further policy support ahead of... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) December’s data will give us the last “clean” view of inflation before price volatility around Chinese New Year obscures the picture. They are likely to show that consumer price inflation is rising... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What to expect from Brazil in 2013 Brazil’s recovery will continue in 2013 but growth is likely to be lacklustre by historic standards. Above target inflation will prevent further policy support in the first few months of the year, but... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) & CPI (Nov.) The 0.1% m/m gain in October's GDP, which partly reflected a rebound in oil and gas extraction, suggests that the economy began the fourth quarter on a somewhat stronger footing. The pace of economic... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation drops to near-three-year low Emerging Market (EM) inflation slowed to a near-three-year low in November. Fears of a food-led inflation shock this year have proved to be misplaced, as we had expected. While inflation is likely to... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation risks still low We expect the major central banks to persist with ultra-loose monetary policy for at least two more years but inflation to remain at historically low levels. This is largely because global demand is... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are central banks going soft on inflation? Recent proposed changes to the monetary policy framework in several countries may signal slightly greater tolerance for inflation. But they do not mean the authorities are relaxing their grip on price... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q4 2012 Business confidence in China has recovered slightly though it remains subdued. Banks are eager to lend but firms show little appetite for loans. Meanwhile, households are increasingly optimistic and... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
