Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation edges to within target range The drop in Brazilian inflation last month was a bit smaller than expected but still sufficient to bring it back within the central bank’s target range. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to fluctuate... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why have we been wrong on inflation? While we think that we’ve done a pretty good job of forecasting the economy recently, we readily admit that our record of forecasting inflation has left a lot to be desired. Given the apparently... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will be forced into a cut by end-2013 The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about rising household debt once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But our expectation for the euro... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr. 13) Consumer price inflation probably picked up last month, due to a rebound in vegetable prices. Further increases lie ahead. 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What next for inflation across the region? Inflation is likely to slow across West Africa in the near term, meaning that interest rate cuts are still a possibility. By contrast, inflation is likely to accelerate in East and South Africa. In... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Can we trust Chile's inflation data? There appears to be some truth to claims that discrepancies in Chile’s consumer price data have lowered inflation artificially. Even so, the overall impact on headline CPI has been relatively small... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Headline PCE inflation to slip below 1% The latest fall in gasoline prices will soon drag headline PCE inflation below 1%. With core PCE inflation set to remain only just above 1.0%, the Fed is likely to become more concerned by the subdued... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & Unemployment (Mar.) April’s drop in euro-zone inflation and the further rise in unemployment in March have added to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Would deflation lead the periphery into a debt trap? If the peripheral euro-zone economies regained competitiveness via outright deflation, their public and private sector debt levels would spiral higher as a share of GDP, prompting disaster. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Doubts lingering at the BoJ Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting was mainly concerned with tying up loose ends left over after the policy overhaul earlier in April. But it also revealed that some Policy Board members are unconvinced... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Struggling Polish economy to trigger further rate cut The weakness of the latest Polish inflation and activity data suggests that the central bank could resume its easing cycle. Admittedly, the MPC appears divided on whether further easing is needed. But... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation outlook remains subdued Emerging Market (EM) inflation fell back in March as temporary distortions related to the Chinese New Year dropped out of the annual comparison. Looking ahead, with underlying price pressures... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) The official core inflation figure, which held steady at 1.4% in March, is likely to drift lower through this year, as the excess slack in the economy continues to grow due to sluggish economic growth... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: inflation to breach target, but only temporarily South African inflation is likely to rise above the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range in the near term, possibly as early as this month. Nevertheless, any spike should prove temporary, and inflation is... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Mar.) With inflation remaining unusually low, the Fed is under little pressure to slow or halt QE. We expect it to continue with open-ended asset purchases until early next year, although it may still slow... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Apr.) & Euro-zone Final CPI (Mar.) April’s fall in the German ZEW index highlighted investors’ fears that the German recovery will falter amid continued concerns about the euro-zone’s periphery. 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
