US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Thanks to some unfavourable base effects, the annual rate of headline CPI inflation rebounded to 1.4% in May, from 1.1%, even though prices increased by only 0.1% m/m last month specifically... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May) May’s rise in inflation confirmed that April’s fall was primarily the result of some temporary factors. That said, the peak is hopefully not too far away now. 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher unit labour costs are a false alarm The rise in the annual growth rate of unit labour costs has more to do with declining labour productivity, rather than any acceleration in the growth rate of labour compensation. Looking ahead, we... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (May) The recent weakness of the global economy explains why both industrial activity and core producer price pressures are still subdued. Producers have had little choice but to reflect the previous sharp... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's inflation eases further, but RBI should remain on hold Today’s further fall in India's wholesale price inflation will come as a relief to policymakers. While the odds of a rate cut have now risen, we still think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will opt to... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation low and heading lower Average inflation in advanced economies fell to only 1.3% in April, its lowest rate since late 2009. Moreover, recent commodity price movements suggest that it will fall further during the coming... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears of inflation and unrest to frustrate subsidy reform Subsidies are becoming increasingly unaffordable across the poorer parts of the MENA region. But the threat of higher inflation and social unrest is likely to frustrate efforts at subsidy reform. 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay's revamped inflation strategy still looks flawed Changes to Uruguay’s monetary policy regime, including a shift towards monetarism, are unlikely to be a panacea for the country’s inflation problems. Without tighter economic policy and efforts to... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rebound remains elusive The key message from China’s May data is that there is no clear evidence of an economic rebound getting underway. Most of the commentary has focused on the impact on exports of more stringent controls... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: time to re-visit our forecasts? Two developments over the past week make this an ideal opportunity to revisit our forecasts for Brazil. On the one hand, weak Q1 GDP data support our long-held view that the economic recovery will... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latvia is still no role model for the euro-zone periphery Today’s convergence report by the EC, which gave the green light to Latvia to join the euro-zone in 2014, is likely to lead to further suggestions that Latvia serves as a role model of “internal... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Further dip in core inflation won't prevent trimming of QE3 Core inflation is unlikely to fall to a level that will spark concerns about deflation and prevent the Fed from slowing the pace of its monthly asset purchases later this year. This is mainly because... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Consumer price inflation was probably little changed in May, but it is likely to pick up over the rest of the year as pork prices look to have bottomed out. 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: May's rise in inflation to postpone rate cuts The sharp increase in Russian inflation in May means that interest rates are likely to be left on hold when Russian central bankers meet next week. However, inflation continues to be driven by food... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Edging out of deflation Japan’s inflation rates look set to turn positive soon. Admittedly, nationwide inflation was still firmly negative on a year-on-year basis in April. But the more timely data for the Tokyo CPI in May... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation to remain low in Emerging Asia Inflation has fallen sharply across most of Asia over the past few months, giving central banks scope to cut interest rates. This Weekly explains why inflation is likely to remain low over the next... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
