UK Data Response

Bank of England Inflation Report (Aug.)

The MPC’s new “forward guidance” supports our view that interest rates are unlikely to rise until 2016 or even 2017, even if the recovery keeps strengthening.

7th August 2013 · 1 min read

Japan Chart Pack

Recovery entering a slower phase

Japan’s economy likely continued to grow at a solid pace in the second quarter of the year, even though the recent wide divergence between various measures of consumer spending raises question marks...

6th August 2013 · 1 min read

China Economics Update

Inflation Monitor (Jul 13.)

Continued increases in pork and vegetable prices look likely to have driven consumer price inflation higher in July. Further rises probably lie ahead.

5th August 2013 · 1 min read

Asia Economics Update

Indonesia‘s growth likely to stay stuck at around 6%

Data released today showed that the pace of economic growth in Indonesia eased slightly in Q2. Higher inflation and tighter monetary policy will weigh on the economy over the next year, and we are...

2nd August 2013 · 1 min read

Europe Data Response

Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jul.) & Unemployment (Jun.)

The latest news on euro-zone unemployment and inflation injected a slight note of caution after the recent run of better news from the region.

31st July 2013 · 1 min read

China Economics Update

Is China suffering from deflation?

If China has dropped into deflation, as many now claim, one implication is that stimulus would succeed in driving a sustainable economic rebound. But evidence of deflation is weak, at best. This is...

30th July 2013 · 1 min read

Japan Data Response

Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The first positive inflation numbers in a year largely reflect the slump in the yen. Excluding food and energy, much of which is imported, Japanese inflation is still negative and should remain so for...

26th July 2013 · 1 min read

UK Economics Update

Falling inflation will benefit some more than others

While all households have faced elevated inflation in recent years, the experience has not been uniform. However, differences in inflation rates are likely to be narrower over the next few years than...

25th July 2013 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

EM inflation turns around, but big pick-up unlikely

Emerging market inflation rose last month, but the combination of soft core price pressures and falling global food price inflation means that any further increases are likely to be limited.

24th July 2013 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa: downside inflation surprise unlikely to last

South African inflation unexpectedly slowed in June, as muted demand pressures more than offset the effects of a weak rand. Nevertheless, we still expect inflation to accelerate in the coming months...

24th July 2013 · 1 min read

Asia Chart Pack

Bottoming out?

Growth in Emerging Asia, which has slowed sharply since the start of the year, may have bottomed out. According to our GDP Tracker, which uses monthly data for output and expenditure, regional GDP...

24th July 2013 · 1 min read

US Economics Focus

Thinking about the new "new normal"

There are reasons to believe that the recent period of sluggish economic growth and near-zero interest rates are coming to a close. While the economy's potential growth rate is probably now only...

23rd July 2013 · 1 min read

US Chart Pack

Employment gains mean that QE3 tapering still on track

Even as estimates for second-quarter GDP growth have been revised lower in response to the disappointing incoming news on activity, the continued resilience of monthly employment gains has persuaded...

23rd July 2013 · 1 min read

Canada Data Response

Consumer Price Index (Jun.)

The modest increase in the official core inflation figure in June, to 1.3% from 1.1% in the month before, was mainly due to specific base-year effects. We expect underlying inflation to stay at the...

19th July 2013 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.)

June’s inflation figures suggested that underlying price pressures in the economy are still fairly weak and have therefore kept the door wide open to more action from the Monetary Policy Committee at...

16th July 2013 · 1 min read