Inflation low and heading lower

Average inflation in advanced economies fell to only 1.3% in April, its lowest rate since late 2009. Moreover, recent commodity price movements suggest that it will fall further during the coming months, and we expect inflation to stay low in most countries in 2014 as global growth remains subdued. This should in turn allow the major central banks in advanced economies to keep rates near zero even though the Fed is likely to scale back its unconventional easing later this year.