The median projection now points to a clear chance of the FOMC hiking and, with Chair Kevin Warsh stating “we’ve got some work to do on the price stability point”, we continue to expect the Fed to raise interest rates this year. With markets now almost giving the Fed the green light to raise interest rates in September, we’ll tentatively stick to our view that the Fed will move at that meeting, but the recent drop back in oil prices means we could be talking about the first hike coming a bit later.
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