EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue but, outside Asia, high inflation means rate cuts will be smaller than most expect.
A shift towards trade protectionism under Trump will weigh on some economies, most notably China and Mexico, although the scale of the economic hit risks being overstated. EMs also generally look well placed to weather an environment of a stronger dollar and higher US Treasury yields.
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