Emerging Markets Economics Focus Gauging the macro impact of El Niño The experience from the two most recent El Niños is that the current one is unlikely to cause a major shock to EM growth, but that it could add to inflation and worsen trade balances, particularly in... 5th November 2026 · 16 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Sep. 2026) The further widening of the goods trade surplus to a more than four-year high in September was not quite as positive as it looks, as it was almost entirely due to a price-driven rise in energy exports... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Sep. 2026) The negligible narrowing in the trade deficit in September, as export growth barely outpaced import growth, is broadly consistent with the BEA’s assumptions in its advance estimate of Q3 GDP... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Solid external position a buffer for the rupiah, for now Indonesia has a relatively solid external position, with the current account deficit still small and foreign exchange reserves comfortably covering the country’s short-term external financing needs... 4th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa AGOA exit won’t harm economic outlook The direct economic effects of the US’s decision to remove South Africa from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) are likely to be limited. South Africa’s growth prospects hinge to a much... 3rd November 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (October 2026) The world economy remains resilient, with business surveys suggesting that growth has accelerated in recent months. World trade is expanding strongly, helped by the AI buildout, while consumption has... 29th October 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Diplomacy stepped up, IMF in Egypt, Bahrain support There has been a step-up in diplomatic efforts over the past week to avoid a renewed escalation of the Iran war. While Iran is enduring severe economic pain, regime hardliners may still be willing to... 29th October 2026 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth weakened further in Q3, in contrast to official figures which showed growth picking up. Exports continued to outperform on the back of strong AI and green... 29th October 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (October 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Underlying inflation in Australia gained traction in Q3, while leading indicators suggest that it will... 29th October 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2026) High-frequency data point to further outflows from EM bond and equity markets, which has been exacerbated by domestic developments in a handful of places (Brazil’s election, the threat of a downgrade... 28th October 2026 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth starting to recover Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth picked up in September as the drag from summer typhoons eased. But growth remains weak by recent standards and increasingly reliant on external demand... 28th October 2026 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s FX war chest is smaller than it looks The RBI’s FX reserves look plentiful but the headline figure overstates the central bank’s firepower, owing to a swollen forward book and sizeable holdings of gold. A renewed, sustained bout of rupee... 28th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran: will economic pain force the regime to capitulate? The US naval blockade that has now been in place for more than 100 days is imposing severe pain on Iran’s economy, with the rial tumbling and inflation at close to 90% y/y. But the extent to which... 27th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fall in Egyptian pound not a cause for panic The latest fall in the Egyptian pound may delay interest rate cuts and raising the cost for the government of servicing its FX debts. But these challenges should be manageable. And the bigger picture... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly The midterms don’t mean enough for Ottawa to interfere Accusations that Ottawa is meddling in the upcoming midterm elections are unfounded given that which party holds Congress from next year will have little bearing on the state of the trading... 23rd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA fiscal policy gains, Ghana mineral export ban South Africa’s markets welcomed this week’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), affirming our view that continued fiscal discipline and higher infrastructure spending are brightening the... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
