Emerging Markets Economics Focus Gauging the macro impact of El Niño The experience from the two most recent El Niños is that the current one is unlikely to cause a major shock to EM growth, but that it could add to inflation and worsen trade balances, particularly in... 5th November 2026 · 16 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can Indonesia’s GDP statistics finally be trusted? Indonesia’s Q3 GDP data show that economic growth picked up to 5.5% y/y and signs that the statistics office has stopped smoothing the data have partly restored our faith in the official figures. But... 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: Q3 growth stumble not huge cause for concern Despite the disappointing Q3 GDP figures, we still think that Hungary’s economic outlook has fundamentally improved since Tisza’s election victory in April. We expect growth to strengthen to 2.5% next... 5th November 2026 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update New services index will aid policymaking over time India’s new Index of Services Production has some notable limitations including a short back series and a lack of coverage in key areas such as health, education and defence. But it is another... 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services (Oct. 2026) The small fall in the ISM services index suggests activity in the sector lost some momentum at the start of the fourth quarter. Together with the increase in its manufacturing counterpart, this leaves... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2026) While the economy has been remarkably resilient to higher interest rates and borrowing costs, the coming rise in CPI inflation is likely to dampen real GDP growth from 1.5% this year as a whole to 1.0... 4th November 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Sep. 2026) The further widening of the goods trade surplus to a more than four-year high in September was not quite as positive as it looks, as it was almost entirely due to a price-driven rise in energy exports... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf recovery remains slow and bumpy The latest activity data for the Gulf underline the sluggish nature of the economic recovery underway. And while diplomatic efforts provide hope for an end to the Iran war, there remains a significant... 3rd November 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong's economy expanded by 5.2% y/y in Q3, up from 4.2% in Q2 and well above market expectations. In seasonally adjusted q/q terms, growth accelerated to a brisk 1.9%, reversing the previous... 3rd November 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs provide little sign of energy price shock broadening The manufacturing PMIs for October suggest that East Asian economies may have lost momentum, but there were more positive stories elsewhere in the EM world. The drop back in the output price component... 2nd November 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Oct. 2026) The rise in the ISM manufacturing survey in October suggests that activity in the sector gained some momentum at the start of the fourth quarter, thanks in part to the ongoing AI buildout. The drop... 2nd November 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tighter immigration settings a long-term downside risk There are some early signs that tighter immigration rules are starting to reduce net migration and there’s a risk that the government will curb migrant inflows further over the coming years. With... 2nd November 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Oct. 2026) The PMIs suggest that China’s economy activity lost momentum in October following September’s pick-up. Manufacturing softened a touch, but foreign demand still looks resilient. More worrying was the... 2nd November 2026 (Updated 4th November 2026) · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly AI trade is driving interest rate expectations Despite this week’s largely as-expected Fed October policy meeting and data showing strong GDP growth and persistent inflationary pressures, investors have pared back interest rate expectations as the... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Can the economy really withstand higher rates? With its hike this week, the Bank of Canada judges the economy to be able to withstand tighter monetary policy, allowing it to prioritise the upside risks to inflation. However, with GDP growth... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Indirect effects of energy prices still modest National inflation data published today suggest that the euro-zone inflation rate will have risen to 4.0% in October and there is growing evidence that higher energy prices are pushing up inflation... 30th October 2026 · 7 mins read
