Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2026) The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision to keep the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75% signalled that further easing isn’t imminent. A resumption of the cycle is plausible next... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will Lula turn to financial repression? Reports that some Lula allies are engaging with a proposal for sharp Selic rate cuts to improve Brazil’s public debt dynamics point to renewed interest in financial repression. While we doubt the... 3rd November 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s comeback, Chile’s hawks Lula’s shock election victory led to dramatic market moves and he has done little since to reassure investors. Our working assumption is that he will adopt a more conservative fiscal stance in 2027... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s market rout threatens growth more than inflation The post-election fall in the Brazilian real is likely to add only modestly to inflation over the next year. The bigger concern is the sharp rise in bond yields which, if sustained, threatens to... 29th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Q3 slump strengthens the case for below-consensus growth The latest data point to an abrupt drop in activity in Latin America, only partly offset by strength in Mexico and Peru. While we don’t think this weakness will last, the carryover from a weak Q3 as... 28th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on the market fallout in Brazil President Lula’s surprise victory in Sunday’s runoff election has triggered an unwinding of earlier market optimism in Brazil but the rout is unlikely to turn into a crisis. While Lula’s populist... 27th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Tech earnings vs central bank caution A hectic week for politics, central banks and corporate earnings reports may well be dominated by continued jitters around the sustainability of the AI equity boom. Over the past couple of weeks, they... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lula’s shock victory to cause Brazilian markets to tumble Lula’s surprise win in the second round of Brazil’s presidential election will dash hopes for reforms that would improve the public finances and strengthen growth prospects. A sharp fall in the real... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s credit risk, regional slowdown, Brazil votes The rise in Argentina’s country risk premium continued this week and seems to reflect concerns about Milei’s re-election prospects next year. The country’s recent history provides reasons to think... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Bolsonaro victory largely priced into Brazilian assets We expect limited immediate market reaction if Flavio Bolsonaro wins Sunday’s run-off election. Over the medium term, though, the bond rally may continue if the Selic rate is cut by more than money... 22nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (October 2026) Growth in the region appears to have weakened sharply in Q3 and, if anything, the risks to our below-consensus forecasts may now lie to the downside. High inflation across the region limits the extent... 20th October 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why Brazil and South Africa could do with new fiscal rules New fiscal rules mooted in Brazil and South Africa could, if implemented, make significant inroads into their public debt problems by reducing high borrowing costs. But the devil will lie in the... 20th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will higher bond yields shape EM fiscal risks? EM public finances have become more vulnerable to higher interest rates in recent years. Some major EMs with underlying fiscal vulnerabilities – including Brazil, South Africa and Hungary – have... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Parsing Banxico’s minutes, Brazil’s pension debate The dovish minutes to the last Banxico meeting may have been aimed at ramming home the point that policymakers won’t mechanically follow the Fed in raising rates. But in any case, the fall in the peso... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Flávio in pole position The strong showing for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election has boosted Brazilian assets this week. Most of the good news now appears to be priced into the FX and... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Sep. 2026) The rise in Brazilian inflation in September, to 4.6% y/y, was largely driven by the unwinding of the electricity discount in August and is unlikely to worry the central bank. We think an interest... 9th October 2026 · 2 mins read
