Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2026) The Mexican central bank’s board made clear that today’s 25bp cut to the policy rate (to 6.25%) is a one-off. But even so, it’s hard to square this decision with the recent sharp fall in the peso... 5th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s comeback, Chile’s hawks Lula’s shock election victory led to dramatic market moves and he has done little since to reassure investors. Our working assumption is that he will adopt a more conservative fiscal stance in 2027... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q3 2026 Provisional) The 0.9% q/q rise in Mexico’s GDP in Q3 confirms that the economy has maintained good momentum and we think that the tone of Banxico’s communications at next week’s meeting will be much less dovish... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Q3 slump strengthens the case for below-consensus growth The latest data point to an abrupt drop in activity in Latin America, only partly offset by strength in Mexico and Peru. While we don’t think this weakness will last, the carryover from a weak Q3 as... 28th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s credit risk, regional slowdown, Brazil votes The rise in Argentina’s country risk premium continued this week and seems to reflect concerns about Milei’s re-election prospects next year. The country’s recent history provides reasons to think... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (October 2026) Growth in the region appears to have weakened sharply in Q3 and, if anything, the risks to our below-consensus forecasts may now lie to the downside. High inflation across the region limits the extent... 20th October 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will higher bond yields shape EM fiscal risks? EM public finances have become more vulnerable to higher interest rates in recent years. Some major EMs with underlying fiscal vulnerabilities – including Brazil, South Africa and Hungary – have... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Parsing Banxico’s minutes, Brazil’s pension debate The dovish minutes to the last Banxico meeting may have been aimed at ramming home the point that policymakers won’t mechanically follow the Fed in raising rates. But in any case, the fall in the peso... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is Mexico’s economy really that weak? Concerns about soft activity partly explain the dovish tilt by Mexican policymakers shown in the latest Banxico minutes, but this downbeat view looks hard to square with the recent improvement in the... 15th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Flávio in pole position The strong showing for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election has boosted Brazilian assets this week. Most of the good news now appears to be priced into the FX and... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (September 2026) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation to 3.5% y/y last month is likely to be followed by further increases. While this is partly a result of a rebound in food inflation, sticky services inflation... 8th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly So long super peso, Brazil votes, BanRep’s last hike The sharp fall in the Mexican peso this week brought an abrupt end to its recent period of strength and makes us more confident that the next move in interest rates will be a hike. Elsewhere, a strong... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (September 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent soft batch of activity data across many parts of Latin America is... 29th September 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BanRep to hike, Mexican growth, Brazil’s election race The recent global bond market sell-off and rise in risk premia on Colombian assets is likely to shift BanRep's board in a more hawkish direction at next Wednesday's meeting. We now expect the central... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026) Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) left interest rates unchanged again today, at 6.50%, and the communications suggest that Banxico is likely to remain on hold. But we think the balance of factors will... 24th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks diverge, Milei bets on taming inflation The Brazilian central bank’s statement at this week’s meeting left the door open for further interest rate cuts and, taken together with the worsening growth outlook, we’ve pencilled in a 25bp... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
