Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (July 2026) Capital inflows into EMs financial markets – particularly equities – have risen over the past month despite the resumption of conflict in the Middle East. Outflows could return again if the situation... 29th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (July 2026) The region appears to have come through the energy shock in good shape so far, with economic activity growing strongly in Q2 (Russia and Romania aside) and inflation falling below central banks’... 28th July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s drone campaign adds to energy shock Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s energy sector are squeezing Russia economically and politically but also putting additional upwards pressure on global energy prices. Ukraine would be loath to end... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly A tale of two seas and the global oil market Brent crude prices crossed $100pb this week on the back of escalating supply risks in the Middle East and from Russia. While the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia may only have a limited impact on... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) The statement to today’s Turkish central bank (CBRT) decision, at which policy rates were kept unchanged, made clear that policymakers are concerned about the renewed rise in oil prices, which is... 23rd July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: strong growth reduces rate cut prospects The latest activity data suggest that Poland’s economy continued to grow rapidly in Q2, supporting our view that the economy will grow by more than 3% over 2026-27. The sharp drop in headline... 22nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s large budget deficit is a growing risk The Polish government’s budget deficit, of ~7% of GDP, isn’t going to trigger near-term sovereign debt problems. But there’s little chance of the deficit narrowing significantly in the coming years... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) cut its policy rate by another 25bp today, to 5.75%, and we think a backdrop of below-target inflation will allow the MNB to continue easing over the coming months. Our... 21st July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly US sanctions talk, Hungary’s constitution, oil prices Renewed momentum in the US to tighten sanctions on Russia, including through the imposition of secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy, could add further pressure on the economy and... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia can still finance the war – but at a growing cost Russia’s fiscal strains are rightly receiving more attention, but we think the more alarmist commentary out there misses the key story. The problem is not that Russia cannot finance the war, but that... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will be next to hike rates? The renewed rise in oil prices has cast fresh uncertainty over the outlook for interest rates. But one thing that emerges from the latest CPI data is that there are a handful of countries where strong... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Soft CEE inflation, Russia under more strain Inflation data released this week for Czechia and Hungary surprised again to the downside, which supports our view that the Czech central bank’s tightening cycle will be short and that the easing... 10th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) 8th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) 6th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE surveys, Tisza budget warning, Russian fuel prices The latest survey data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week painted a mixed picture for June, but the overall story is that GDP growth looks to have strengthened over Q2 as a whole... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s fiscal hole will hold back the recovery The Orbán administration’s pre-election spending splurge is likely to push the Hungarian government’s budget deficit towards 6.5% of GDP (on an ESA basis) by the end of this year. Our judgement is... 2nd July 2026 · 3 mins read
