Africa Economics Update Uganda’s external pressures force aggressive tightening The Bank of Uganda’s (BoU) decision to raise its policy rate by 225bp to 12.00% at an unscheduled meeting today underscores the deterioration in the country’s external position. So long as global... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2026) EM growth appears to have weakened in Q3 but we think it will accelerate this quarter. Inflation is set to rise further and, with policymakers turning cautious, we have pencilled in further rate hikes... 14th October 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s debt burden to remain on a downwards path Egypt’s public finances still look poor on the surface, but there are reasons to think that the public debt burden will decline over the coming years. That will have positive spillover effects... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS leaves policy on hold, further moves unlikely The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left monetary policy settings unchanged today, and we think they will remain on hold in the near term. Although growth should remain strong, inflation is... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update When would the ECB intervene in bond markets? Bond markets are a long way from needing ECB intervention – in the recent past, policymakers have only got twitchy when 10-year sovereign spreads were around 250bp. If spreads approached those levels... 13th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (October 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. There are no signs that higher interest rates are resulting in tighter financial conditions or... 13th October 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (Sep. 2026) While the Board continued to strike a hawkish tone in September, we’re sticking to our view that the cash rate has already peaked. 13th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Seoul’s housing boom complicates the BoK’s next move House price growth in Korea has accelerated, but the renewed strength is largely confined to Seoul. This is a concern for the central bank but, for now, we think officials are more likely to tighten... 12th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa services inflation not yet a major cause for alarm The rise in services inflation in South Africa has grabbed the attention of the Reserve Bank but we don’t think it is currently high or widespread enough to prompt further rate hikes. And, so long as... 12th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak loonie further complicates the Bank’s task This week's fall in Canada's nominal effective exchange rate to its lowest level since the 2016 oil price crash might, at the margin, make Governing Council more reluctant to lean too dovish at... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation risks keep more Fed hikes in play The latest data and Fedspeak suggest there is upside risk to our forecast that the Fed will hike interest rates twice more, by a total 50 bp, in the coming six months. 9th October 2026 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Parsing the RBI’s messaging, US Green Card curbs The RBI kicked off its tightening cycle this week with a 25bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.50%) and Governor Sanjay Malhotra's worries about a "generalisation of inflation" suggest to us that further... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Glapinski holding out … but rate hikes coming soon Governor Glapinski’s post-meeting press conference this week shifted in a more hawkish direction and we now think that some modest tightening of monetary policy (50bp in total) will be delivered in... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Flávio in pole position The strong showing for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election has boosted Brazilian assets this week. Most of the good news now appears to be priced into the FX and... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
