Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico, AI supply chains & fiscal slippage Data released over the past week provide growing evidence that Mexico’s industrial sector is benefiting from integration into AI supply chains. But this is being offset by weakness in the rest of the... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump may yet tighten the screw further While the Trump administration's planned import ban on some Canadian goods doesn't change much for the growth outlook, further escalation such as US withdrawal from CUSMA could be disastrous. We... 11th September 2026 · 6 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed set to hike next week and by 75bp in total The firm August price data means we are reinstating our prior forecast that the Fed will hike this month and by 75bp in total. That would take the fed funds target range to between 4.25% and 4.50%. 11th September 2026 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Thoughts on a jam-packed week for monetary policy A busy week for monetary policy highlighted the growing divergence among the region's central banks. On the more dovish side, Poland’s appears in no rush to shift to interest rate hikes, while we... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German political uncertainty rising; ECB to hike again The strong showing of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany's state elections is likely to reinforce the difficulties that the federal government faces in implementing reforms and containing... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Won’s rebound, CBC to hold fire, China Shock 2.0 The Korean won hit a two-year high this week, helped by profit repatriation by major tech firms and foreign investors scaling back their selling of Korean equities. We think it will make further gains... 11th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2026) The slightly larger-than-expected fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.2% y/y in August was driven by a temporary drop in household energy prices. But even so, it keeps the door open for the central bank... 11th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Can the BoE stay on hold while the ECB and Fed hike? As the Bank of England’s situation is a bit different to the Fed’s and the ECB’s, it is possible for the Bank to go it alone and not raise interest rates. The risks to that forecast, though, are one... 11th September 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger inflation points to further yen gains This week’s producer price and wage data show that inflationary pressure in Japan remains firm. That should set the stage for the Bank of Japan to pick up the pace of policy tightening. Meanwhile, the... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly The RBI’s fistful of dollars The RBI's efforts to attract foreign-currency deposits have proven more successful than expected, but the resulting surge in liquidity has eased monetary conditions and may complicate efforts to... 11th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly One more RBA hike should do the job RBA policymakers continued to signal concerns about upside risks to inflation, while survey data showed that firms still face elevated price pressures. We expect a 25bp hike to 4.60% later this month... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ set to accelerate its tightening cycle The Bank of Japan will accelerate its tightening cycle with a hike to 1.25% at its upcoming meeting. With the Bank increasingly concerned about upside risks to inflation, we now expect the Bank to... 11th September 2026 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Tight fiscal stances, deteriorating terms of trade and weakening labour markets mean that Latin American economies will continue to struggle and we think regional growth will come in below 2% in the... 10th September 2026 · 21 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB will hike again, but will be cutting next year There was no surprise at today’s rate hike by the ECB, but the Bank’s forecast revisions and President Lagarde’s remarks in the press conference suggest that policymakers are minded to raise rates... 10th September 2026 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch Holding while others hike Even though the ECB has raised interest rates again and the Fed appears close to a hike, we are not expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates at its meeting on Thursday 17th September, or... 10th September 2026 · 5 mins read
