Brazil tariffs: modest macro hit, political boost for Lula
Brazil has been in the crosshairs in the US’s latest tariff salvo, which will lead to a renewed drop in exports to the US over the coming months. But the impact on GDP growth and inflation should remain modest and we’re not changing our macro forecasts. The potentially bigger story is that the trade dispute is likely to further strengthen President Lula’s position ahead of October’s election.
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