UK Markets Chart Pack Gilt yields stay low as QE3 begins UK government bond yields and equity prices have diverged over the last month. The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) decision to resume quantitative easing (QE) appears to explain their decoupling... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fall in Bund yields does not change weak property price outlook The sharp fall in 10-year German Bund yields since the end of Q1 has pushed all-property/Bund yield spreads in the euro-zone to new highs. Clearly, property yields now incorporate some allowances for... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices have further to fall Cuts in power tariffs to high cost Chinese smelters and global economic weakness mean aluminium prices are likely to fall from $1,880 to no more than $1,750 per tonne over the next 12 months. 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The recent slowdown in broad money growth appears to have levelled off as bank lending has started to rise. Lending appears to be being driven by households as corporate borrowing has declined despite... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House prices are on a streak but may slow in second half Annualised growth on the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic house price indices over the past three months stands at 6.2% and 9% respectively. However, price growth may moderate in the second half of the year... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Lending set to fuel investment-led rebound in short-term Today’s strong lending data cast last week’s rate cut in a new light. Policy is being eased further even though earlier stimulus measures had already started to take effect. That suggests the... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six reasons not to panic about US grain prices Fears of the “worst drought in the US in 25 years” have led to a spike in US grain prices and understandably added to concerns about another global food inflation shock. However, there are at least... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q1) The contraction in GDP in the first quarter of this year is a reminder that, while Ireland has made some progress in restoring competitiveness and regaining the confidence of the bond markets, it is... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea cuts rates, further cuts likely soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate to 3% today. It was a surprise that the move came at this meeting, but we have long held the view that rates would need to be cut this year to support the... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s increase in euro-zone industrial production does not alter our view that the sector will continue to act as a drag on overall GDP growth. 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Are all forecasters too bearish about industrial rents? Despite a recent improvement in some near-term demand indicators, even the most optimistic forecaster in the consensus only expects nominal industrial rents to be 1% higher at end-2013 than they are... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia keep rates on hold, no change likely soon Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate unchanged at a record low of 5.75%. Although inflation is likely to rise sharply in the second half of the year, with global demand set to remain... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan saves its ammunition The latest tweaks to the Asset Purchase Program maintain the bias towards “powerful easing” at the Bank of Japan, although for now the Policy Board has kept additional JGB buying in reserve. 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates to stay lower for longer Last night’s decision by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) to cut interest rates was widely expected. With policymakers struggling to revive the economy, and external headwinds brewing, we think that... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
