UK Economics Update Rise in energy prices unlikely to prevent more stimulus The recent reversal of the 25% or so fall in oil prices earlier this year and the prospect of another round of utility price rises might now mean that CPI inflation struggles to fall below the 2%... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jul.) As expected, June’s unexpectedly large drop in mortgage approvals was partially reversed in July. But the rise was small, and these figures continue to highlight that tight credit conditions are... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2) Q2’s Norwegian GDP data provided further signs that the economy is shrugging off the euro-zone debt crisis. But although Norway is likely to remain one of Europe’s best performers over the coming... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The weakness in today’s flash PMI suggests that hopes for an economic recovery in the current quarter will be dashed, again. 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s flash euro-zone purchasing managers’ index (PMI) did nothing to challenge the notion that the single currency area is now firmly in recession. 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed minutes suggest QE3 is a done deal The minutes from the last FOMC meeting at the start of this month strongly suggest that the Fed will launch a third round of quantitative easing at the upcoming meeting in mid-September. While QE3... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Domestic resilience amid global slowdown Over the past few weeks, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand all reported GDP data that were better than the consensus expected, reflecting strong domestic demand helping to offset export weakness... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul. 12) For now, our view that the recent dip in existing home sales was not the start of a weaker trend seems to be on track. But the combination of a subdued outlook for US economic growth and tight... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus A deal with the IMF will mark a turning point for Egypt The visit of Christine Lagarde to Egypt today is perhaps the clearest signal yet that the country is close to signing a deal with the IMF. If this materialises before the end of the year (as the... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun. 12) June's slight dip in retail sales volumes, paired with a decline in wholesale trade and a modest increase in manufacturing sales, indicates that monthly GDP grew by 0.1% to 0.2% m/m in June. This... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would extended Sunday trading hours help retailers? The Government is reportedly considering making permanent the temporary extension to Sunday trading hours for large retailers. We doubt that this would give much of a boost to overall retail spending... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal squeeze supposed to intensify next year The return to recession and the deterioration in the public finances have put the Chancellor in a tricky position, to put it mildly. His dilemma is made even worse by the fact that, on his current... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Weak Japanese exports continue regional trend The weakness in Japan’s export data in July provides yet another reminder of the fragility of the recovery in the global economy. What’s more, these data underline the trend across Asia, with no sign... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Out-of-town shopping centres will remain a bright spot In recent quarters, out-of-town shopping centres have performed well in absolute terms and relative to their in-town counterparts. The weak consumer outlook and the growth of on-line shopping both... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Downside risks abound Our baseline forecast for the US economy looks fairly benign, with GDP growth gradually picking up from 1.5% annualised in the second half of this year to 2.0% next year. However, we would stress that... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
