Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary cuts rates but further easing likely to be limited The National Bank of Hungary’s surprise decision to cut interest rates today suggests that further easing could be on the way. But unless and until an IMF/EU deal is agreed, anything more than a... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada close to dropping hawkish bias The Bank of Canada's policy statement next week is likely to retain its hawkish bias about the need to raise interest rates. Given the faltering global economy and stalling domestic housing market... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The latest monetary data confirm that the ECB’s earlier liquidity operations have yet to boost lending to the private sector, which will add to the pressure on the Bank to do more. As well as buying... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BANREP to continue cutting as growth slows There has been some improvement in the outlook for the Colombian economy in recent weeks, but interest rates will probably still fall further. Indeed, with the euro-zone crisis set to deepen and... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: growth strong, but becoming unbalanced While Peru’s economy held up better than most of its peers in the first half of this year, the drivers of growth are becoming increasingly unbalanced. With domestic demand starting to show signs of... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Will safe-haven flows prevent a fall in Stockholm office values? Sweden’s strong economic fundamentals and high transparency scores have boosted overseas demand for Stockholm office property and pushed yields down to historically low levels. But we are sceptical... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Do recessions damage supply? Some historical evidence Some key historical evidence does not support the view that major recessions inevitably permanently damage an economy’s supply capacity. Indeed, economies’ capacity to produce goods and services can... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital values hit lowest level in July since May 2010 The economy is now estimated to have shrunk by 0.5% q/q in Q2. But the labour market delivered better news - employment rose strongly in the second quarter. However, inflation ticked up in July, and... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Weak start to Q3 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy slowed in July after steadying at the end of Q2. A further deterioration in exports and real estate construction has... 27th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Businesses becoming increasingly cautious The sharp downturn in capital goods orders suggests that the continuing euro-zone crisis and growing uncertainty about the outlook for US fiscal policy are having an increasingly marked impact on... 27th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal dilemma intensifies Last week brought more bad news for the Chancellor. The public sector ran a deficit in July, a month when a surplus is typically the norm. Admittedly, some temporary factors contributed to July’s poor... 27th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly No respite in sight for Japan's manufacturers It was perhaps refreshing that last week there was at least one occasion when news from Japan drove markets elsewhere, rather than vice versa. Unfortunately, that news was bad, namely the weakness of... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal policy stuck between a rock and a hard place Many Fed officials appear increasingly concerned that the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for fiscal policy is already starting to curb household and business spending. Unless Congress acts, a... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack likely to increase Canada's employment gains during its economic recovery have been far from broad-based and bolstered by an oversized contribution from the public sector. In addition, the official unemployment rate... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Jul. 12) At first glance the 4.2% m/m surge in July's durable goods orders looks very impressive, but nothing could be further from the truth. This is a very weak report. The slump in core capital goods orders... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
