US Economics Update Leading indicators of unemployment rate provide little hope The indicators that provide some steer of where the unemployment rate is heading over the next few months supply little evidence that it will dip below 8%. What’s more, we doubt that GDP growth will... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC waiting for further evidence before easing The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave interest rates on hold today suggests that policymakers want to see further evidence of a slowdown in the economy before easing policy. We doubt... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How far has the inflation outlook deteriorated? As things stand, the spike in global food prices since early June is likely to push up annual inflation in Latin America by around 0.5-1.0%-pts over the next six months or so. But while this is likely... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack External imbalances getting worse The widening of the current account deficit to a record 5.4% of GDP in the second quarter put paid to any hopes of a rebalancing in the economy. The deterioration mainly reflected a deficit on the UK... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep. 12) Mortgage interest rates have fallen further in response to the third round of quantitative easing. This translated into stronger demand for mortgages in the closing weeks of September, both from... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Sep. 12) September’s PMI data suggest that the UAE’s non-oil sector is growing at a healthy pace on the back of both strong domestic demand and stable external conditions. 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Sep.) September’s CIPS/Markit report on services was consistent with the message from the other activity surveys released earlier this week, namely of an economy which is struggling to grow. While some... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi PMI continues to buck the global trend September’s PMI data suggest that growth in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector continues to accelerate. But this contradicts other activity data, including our own proxy for the non-oil economy. 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market manufacturers still struggling The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 13.00% today and, while theeasing cycle still has further to run, we think the pace of rate cuts may slow in the months ahead. 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran premium in oil prices set to fall The high cost of oil reflects hopes of a strong recovery in demand at least as much as fears of a military conflict between the West and Iran. However, the price of a barrel of Brent probably still... 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Pace of monetary easing to slow in Uganda The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 13.00% today and, while the easing cycle still has further to run, we think the pace of rate cuts may slow in the months ahead. 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The latest rise in house prices provides further evidence that the housing market is staging an encouraging, if still quite modest, recovery. Improving sales volumes and tight supply suggest that... 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Lower inflation around the corner We expect annual CPI inflation to fall from an already muted 1.6% this year to only 1.2% next year, as GDP growth slows and economic slack increases. The outlook for 2014 looks much the same. 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Sep.) Although activity in the wider construction sector edged up a fraction in September, activity in the commercial sector continued to soften. That suggests that confidence in the prospects of an... 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep.) The Nationwide index ended the third quarter on a weak note. Taken with yesterday’s weak mortgage lending data it certainly seems as though the housing market is one area where there is precious... 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
