Capital Daily Concentrated earnings probably mean concentrated returns Although S&P 500 earnings have become even more dominated by a handful of companies, that hasn’t consistently translated into larger companies outperforming smaller ones lately. We expect big-tech... 27th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Will term premia plunge again when the AI bubble bursts? Although there are many reasons to expect recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury term premium to persist, they could collectively be more than outweighed for a while by a bursting of the... 26th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Focus How hedge funds are shaking up sovereign bond markets The increased footprint of hedge funds in sovereign bond markets is one reason why these markets will remain susceptible to frequent bouts of volatility. This Focus examines, more broadly, the risks... 26th August 2026 · 19 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jul. 2026), GDP (Q2 2026, 2nd est.) & Durable Goods Orders (Jul. 2026) The slightly above-target-consistent rise in the core PCE deflator in July won’t be enough to convince the Fed that they’ll need to hike rates as soon as September. But with the annual rate still at 3... 26th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recent rise in yields won’t sap the economy’s momentum The recent sell-off in long-end Treasuries does not amount to a tightening in financial conditions that will slow the economy. Accordingly, we still expect the Fed to raise interest rates by year-end. 25th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Private-sector issuance not yet undermining Treasuries Despite gross issuance of long-dated US corporate bonds and other private-sector bonds surging over recent months, we doubt this is the main culprit behind the rise of Treasury yields over this period... 25th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Unveils Retaliatory Tariffs and Relief Package The retaliatory tariffs announced today largely match the Section 338 tariffs imposed on Canada last week, reflecting a response which is politically popular but economically insignificant – and... 25th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun. 2026) Even though the 0.2% m/m rise in house prices in June was stronger than we expected, we remain reasonably confident that prices will lose momentum heading into the third quarter as the backward... 25th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response “Economic D-Day” Sanctions (Aug. 2026) The announcement of the “greatest financial offensive ever” by the US ups the ante on Iran and could widen the divide between factions in the country. But with the renewed US naval blockade already... 24th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily More bond pressure, more AI wobbles We don’t think it’s time to panic about long-dated government bonds, even though the headwinds they face are gathering strength. 24th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Term premia aren’t the only risk to Treasuries Although the main cause of weakness in long-dated Treasury bonds at the moment seems to be rising term premia, increasing ‘risk-neutral’ yields could prove just as problematic to them in the longer... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Bessent twists, will Warsh stick? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s efforts to keep down the long-end of the yield curve may not have been quite as effective as he hoped, although they do provide a clear signalling mechanism. Bessent... 21st August 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Transhipment crackdown not a big threat to China’s exports We agree with the White House’s assessment that China’s indirect exports to the US have risen sharply since US tariffs first came into force. But it remains unclear how much of this is illegal... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation still in the Bank’s favour The firming of core price growth in July likely reflected temporary factors, rather than being a sign that core inflation is set to accelerate. Nonetheless, we expect the GDP data next week to reveal... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jun. 2026) The 1.5% m/m jump in retail sales volumes in June confirms solid momentum in consumer spending heading into the third quarter, though the weak July advance estimate suggests that the renewed rise in... 21st August 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update Bessent won’t keep the bond vigilantes at bay forever We suspect long-dated Treasury yields will stabilise over the next few weeks as some calm is restored following the recent bout of volatility in global sovereign bond markets. But we expect term... 21st August 2026 · 4 mins read
