Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jul. 2026) While core prices rose at their strongest pace in almost a year in July, the key drivers were temporary factors and the annual rate remained at the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. The key message... 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury sell-off not (yet) a major worry for stock markets The renewed rise in long-term government bond yields despite generally softer US economic data and the largely unchanged situation in the Strait of Hormuz is somewhat worrying. But Treasury yields... 17th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Commercial Property Lending (July 2026) Net lending by banks to commercial real estate excluding farms slowed in July to $4.1bn, from $8.9bn in June. That’s the lowest total since April 2025. Slower net lending against both multifamily and... 14th August 2026 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s next move a hike, but not in September The tameness of the price data for July means we are dropping our call for the Fed to raise interest rates in September. Nonetheless, we are not convinced that the conditions are in place for core... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Prospects improve for a deal to avert 50% tariffs Reports this week that the US is willing work with Canada to reduce, though not fully eliminate, some of its sector-specific tariffs make us slightly more confident that the 50% Section 338 tariffs... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily New engine, same US equity outperformance Sector composition has been a headwind to the performance of the US stock market vis-à-vis the rest of the world in recent months, but a broad-based rally has helped it to outperform regardless. 14th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jun. 2026) Another broad-based rise in manufacturing sales in June poses upside risks to an already punchy second-quarter GDP estimate and, paired with recent strength in the labour market, leaves soft core... 14th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jul 2026) The fall in control group retail sales in July, together with downward revisions to growth in May and June, leave the consumer looking a little less healthy and further reduce the chance of the Fed... 14th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Major gains for Midwest markets in warehouse rankings Our updated analysis of 34 major industrial markets shows an improvement in the rent growth prospects for many Midwest markets, with big year-on-year gains in Cleveland, Detroit, Indianapolis and St... 13th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Recent rise in Treasury term premia no cause for alarm Despite a recent rebound in ACM’s estimate of the 10-year Treasury term premium, to within striking distance of May 2025’s more-than-decade high of ~0.9%, we doubt it will rise further. 13th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jul 2026) The PPI data, together with the CPI data released yesterday, point to a 0.16% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in July. That would be marginally lower than the target consistent rate and, on the back... 13th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing recovery still some way off Strengthening economic growth will not provide much of a lift to the housing market, which we expect to remain in its structural malaise as mortgage rates stay above 6% over the forecast period. We... 12th August 2026 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily September rate hike a coin toss, but hikes are coming US CPI data for July seem unlikely to swing the balance on the FOMC one way or the other, so developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the US August price data are likely to be key. For now, we... 12th August 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jul 2026) The 0.21% m/m rise in core CPI in July does not really swing the debate for either the doves or the hawks on the FOMC, with our preliminary estimate ahead of the PPI data tomorrow pointing to a... 12th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 earnings growth isn’t really broadening out The argument that S&P 500 earnings growth is broadening out doesn’t really stack up. It remains highly concentrated in two of the three ‘big-tech’ sectors, even allowing for a pick up in some others. 11th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Jul. 2026) The modest fall in existing home sales in July will probably be followed by further declines in the next few releases, reflecting the steady rise in mortgage rates through June and July, which reached... 11th August 2026 · 2 mins read
