US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun. 2026) ISM points to easing price pressures The slight fall in the ISM Manufacturing Index in June doesn’t change the fact that the sector has generally been resilient since the start of the Iran war. And... 1st July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update How much will higher yields affect the debt burden? While the rise in Treasury yields over the past four months could increase the US government’s interest costs by about 0.3% of GDP over the next year, it is unlikely on its own to shake investor... 30th June 2026 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr. 2026) Pause in house price falls will be temporary The unchanged level of house prices in April was a slightly better result than we had been predicting and reinforced our view that a sustained downturn in... 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Apr. 2026) The stronger-than-expected 0.5% m/m rise in GDP in April extended beyond solely the oil and gas sector and, paired with the advance estimate of a 0.1% rise in May, leaves second-quarter GDP growth on... 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook CUSMA uncertainty to slow recovery, delay rate hikes Uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will slow the recovery, with average annual GDP growth a below-consensus 0.5% this year. A return to firmer growth of 1.7% in 2027 should see core price... 29th June 2026 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily Bunds could leave Treasuries behind We expect the Treasury rally to run out of steam but think bunds could gain further, weighing on the euro. The yen may eventually fare better, though. 29th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Sluggish infrastructure push emblematic of broader woes The announcement that the Major Projects Office will grant three infrastructure projects "national interest" status later this year means little for the growth outlook given there are still multiple... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly AI boom supporting growth and pushing up prices The fall in WTI to below $70pb has reduced the urgency for the Fed to raise rates, with futures shifting to pricing in a 70% chance of a 25bp hike by the September meeting, down from 95% last week... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US equities won’t necessarily all peak at the same time Even if the AI boom turned into a bust the “non-tech” parts of the stock market could conceivably shrug it off for a while, as they have this week. 26th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Summer festival fever to keep hiring momentum intact The June Employment Report, due a day earlier than usual (Thursday July 2nd), is likely to show another solid 110,000 gain in non-farm payrolls, with hiring supported by major summer events, including... 25th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US dollar rally has further to run despite inflation peaking After a sharp rise in the wake of last week’s FOMC meeting, the US dollar has dropped back a little today and may be due a pause in the very near term. But we think that the emerging monetary policy... 25th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook The AI equity boom reaching its final innings We think the AI rally is approaching its last stage, but is probably not quite over yet. Accordingly, we expect the tech-heavy equity markets, such as those in the US, Korea, and Taiwan, to continue... 25th June 2026 · 30 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI boom to power growth and keep core inflation firm The economy is in the middle of an AI-related capex boom and, with some of the prior policy-related headwinds now fading, we expect average annual GDP growth to pick-up to an above-consensus 2.5% next... 25th June 2026 · 17 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (May 2026) The 3.4% rate of core PCE inflation in May likely marks the peak of this cycle, as tariff effects fade and the recent plunge in oil prices weighs on several categories, including airline fares. Even... 25th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Key takeaways from our alternative assets roundtables This week we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about the outlook for alternative real estate assets. This note shares our answers to some of the most... 25th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (May 2026) The larger-than-expected rise in headline inflation in May was mostly due to higher fuel and food prices, both of which should prove temporary. With core price pressures still muted otherwise, the... 22nd June 2026 · 2 mins read
