Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jul. 2026) The Bank's messaging accompanying its decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25% in July suggests it has no intention of responding to energy-driven inflation with higher interest rates... 15th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (May 2026) The rise in manufacturing sales in May was accompanied by a surge in new and unfilled orders, confirming that the sector remains in a cyclical upswing despite punitive US sector-specific tariffs. 15th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jun 2026) The producer price data lead us to estimate that the core PCE deflator rose at a target-consistent pace of 0.16% m/m in June. Nonetheless, that would still leave the three-month annualised rate at 3.0... 15th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily One soft CPI print unlikely to derail rate hike narrative Despite some better news on US inflation, we continue to think the FOMC will raise the fed funds rate later this year. In turn, that points to a flatter US yield curve and a stronger US dollar. 14th July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jun 2026) The unchanged core CPI in June is not quite as good as it looks for the Fed’s preferred core PCE measure, but the latter should still have risen at close to a target-consistent rate last month. That... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chart Pack (July 2026) Strengthening economic activity in the US is set to support a pick-up in rental growth over the next year or so, but property performance is still likely to undershoot Europe. And while renewed Iran... 14th July 2026 · 0 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Commercial Property Lending (June 2026) At $9.1bn, net lending by banks to commercial real estate in June slowed slightly from a downwardly-revised May figure, consistent with a solid start to the year for investment. 13th July 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US dollar wins again, and Chinese tech stocks’ woes The US dollar is still a beneficiary from US-Iran hostilities, but it won’t necessarily fare as well as it did earlier this year even if the situation worsens. Meanwhile, Chinese tech stocks could... 13th July 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Warsh assembles his dream team(s) The list of names announced this week to lead Kevin Warsh’s task forces on improving Fed operations comprise a well-respected and diverse group of academic economists, former central bankers, and... 10th July 2026 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 still looking for new leadership The S&P 500 has held up reasonably well in recent weeks despite a correction in semiconductor stocks, helped by a nascent recovery in software equities. But we doubt the index would be able to achieve... 10th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jun. 2026) Labour market recovering The modest rise in employment in June, following the bumper rise in May, will provide further reassurance to the Bank of Canada that the economy is recovering from its weak... 10th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly A recipe for oil (and fuel) price volatility While the flare up in military activity in the Middle East does not change our forecast for oil prices to trend lower next year, the latest developments support our view that energy prices will... 10th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank can afford to be patient Lower oil prices reduce the pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates at the expense of the economy, which remains fragile despite some recent signs of improvement. We therefore still expect the... 9th July 2026 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the bond market implications of US-Iran re-escalation Market participants have taken the return to warfare between the US and Iran in their stride. Government bond markets are likely to remain most vulnerable to a renewed surge in energy prices, even if... 9th July 2026 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Jun. 2026) Higher mortgage rates weighing on homebuying The fall in existing home sales in June, together with the further rise in mortgage rates in recent months, continues to point to downside risks to our... 9th July 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jun. 16-17) The minutes of the Fed's mid-June meeting confirm a hawkish pivot across the entire rate-setting committee. In a scenario that resembles our baseline for the economy, where the labour market remains... 8th July 2026 · 2 mins read
