Capital Daily Oil and US equities no longer have much of a MoU Today’s surge in oil prices, prompted by Donald Trump’s declaration that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran is “over”, has taken a toll on the S&P 500. Our sense, though, is... 8th July 2026 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Updated fair value analysis drives higher cap rate forecasts The diminished spread between cap rates and the 10-year Treasury yield poses a challenge for real estate pricing. Looking ahead, in a world in which we expect the Treasury yield to stay near its... 8th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest tech share washout Another tough day for shares in the semiconductor sector highlights just how far the bar for a successful earnings announcement has been raised, and how reliant the overall tech equity boom remains on... 7th July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (May 2026) The sharp widening in the trade deficit in May was largely down to price effects and can therefore be looked through. That said, the surprise, large fall in computer imports poses a downside risk to... 7th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (May 2026) Surge in trade surplus entirely down to price effects The further improvement in Canada’s goods trade balance to a four-year high was not as good as it looks, as total export volumes were essentially... 7th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys highlight vulnerability outside of oil sector The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys point to an economy tarnished by the oil price shock, with improvements in activity isolated to the oil sector. Activity in the non-oil economy should... 6th July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jun. 2026) Inflation pressures softening, albeit slowly The fall in both the ISM services and manufacturing prices paid indices in June brings our weighted index across the two sectors to a four-month low of 69... 6th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily AI still key to US equity gains, and we expect more We don’t think the AI rally has run out of steam, despite the mixed performance of tech stocks lately. But if tech’s troubles do resume in earnest, we think the chances of a sustained “positive... 6th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Deal or no deal, trade with the US will remain seismic The lack of agreement to renew CUSMA will change little for trade with the US in the near term. And, even if the US were to withdraw, deep historical integration and lower tariffs post-IEEPA make it... 3rd July 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Gasoline prices still pumped up; China LNG buying heats up While President Trump has accused gasoline retailers of price gouging and called for lower prices, disruptions to global refining activity – particularly in Russia – may prevent gasoline prices from... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Expect more sell-offs even as the AI bubble inflates further The tech sell-off doesn’t necessarily herald the imminent end of the AI bubble. Indeed, volatility could pick up quite a bit more, perhaps resulting in further sharp (but short-lived) drawdowns even... 3rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls disappointment unlikely to prevent higher US rates A softer US non-farm payrolls report pours a bit of cold water on the idea that the US economy is overheating. However, we continue to think that the FOMC will stick to its hawkish stance, and that... 2nd July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Payrolls blip a drop in the inflationary ocean June's underwhelming Employment Report was still enough to support our view that the labour market is stabilising which, paired with sticky core inflation, should prompt the Fed to reverse last year's... 2nd July 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jun. 2026) The much weaker-than-expected rise in non-farm payrolls in June sows some doubt in our view that the Fed will reverse all three of its “insurance cuts” over the next three quarters. Nonetheless, with... 2nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update An (updated) primer on the USMCA joint review We think the popularity of the trade agreement among domestic firms, the potential for backlash from an increasingly assertive Congress, and the likelihood of intervention by the Supreme Court should... 2nd July 2026 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury curve may invert again The Treasury yield curve has flattened over recent weeks despite an offsetting fall in inflation expectations. We wouldn’t be surprised if this curve inverted, but we don’t think a US recession is... 1st July 2026 · 4 mins read
