Bonds Update Treasury curve inversion may be on the cards We expect the spread between 10- and 2-year Treasury yields to narrow further over the coming months, and we think that continued escalation in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to the curve inverting... 20th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jun. 2026) The Bank of Canada will be pleased to see core price pressures remained subdued last month, even with some FIFA World Cup-related boost. With Governing Council reiterating their willingness to look... 20th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Gold still has some value as a hedge Gold has arguably behaved more like a “risky” asset than a “safe” one lately, but we think it could still be a useful hedge against falls in equity prices under important, if limited, circumstances... 20th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Re-escalating war & AI scepticism a tricky mix for equities The return to war in the Strait of Hormuz may start to weigh more heavily on financial markets before too long, especially if even strong tech earnings reports continue to be met with scepticism. And... 20th July 2026 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Senior housing and retail lead the pack for 2026-30 returns Real estate returns over the coming years will be dominated by the income component, as an increase in cap rates to fully reflect the higher yield environment offsets support for values from rising... 17th July 2026 · 20 mins read
US Economics Weekly A month of soft inflation won’t assuage Fed’s concerns The softer-than-expected June CPI and PPI prints don't change the fact that price pressures remain elevated. Accordingly, we're sticking with our view that the Fed will hike interest rates as soon as... 17th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Venezuela not yet eating Canada’s oil lunch The renewed rise in oil prices is positive news for Canada’s oil sector, but the latest US import data highlight the longer-term risks from greater Venezuelan production. 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Banks and the bubble in AI Financials have been the best-performing ‘cyclical’ sector of the S&P 500 since the ongoing rotation out of information technology began on 2nd June. Indeed, they have been the second-best performer... 17th July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jun. 2026) Despite the unchanged reading in June, second-quarter manufacturing output expanded at a solid 4.7% annualised pace, supported by booming production of hi-tech inputs for the AI buildout. The recent... 17th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Jun. 2026) Rebound in homebuilding not as good as it looks The strong rebound in housing starts in June wasn’t quite as promising the headline number suggests, as it was entirely driven by a surge in the... 17th July 2026 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Global views are shifting in China’s favour Public opinion favours China over the US in most major economies, according to survey data published by the Pew Research Center this week. That includes several countries that we classify as... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update US Pending Home Sales & Mortgage Apps. (Jun. 2026) Pending home sales and purchase mortgage applications both point to existing home sales falling back below a 4m annualised pace in the coming months. With higher Treasury yields likely to put further... 16th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Markets won’t shrug off a closed Strait forever While investors seem more relaxed about the economic damage of rising oil prices than they were during the initial outbreak of the war, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would probably cause... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jul. 2026) The housing market continued to slowly improve in June and the recent rebound in government bond yields is unlikely to be large enough to trigger any renewed near-term weakness. Meanwhile, the... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jun 2026) The moderate gains in headline and control group retail sales in June are much better than they look considering the softness of price growth last month. Indeed, we estimate that real consumption... 16th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank content to look through energy-driven inflation The Bank's messaging accompanying its decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25% in July suggests it has no intention of responding to energy-driven inflation with higher interest rates... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
