Capital Daily Peace dividend may not be paid in full to all markets The announcement of a US-Iran deal has given markets a lift across the board, but different responses across central banks this week could see the start of more divergence across bond and FX markets. 15th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US IPO wave adds another red flag to the AI boom Asset markets have rebounded on the latest reports of (yet another) imminent US-Iran peace deal, but the bigger test facing the US equity market is arguably the incoming mega-IPOs, the first of which... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC unlikely to kick off hiking cycle this year The dovish communications from the Bank of Canada this week, as well as hopes that a US-Iran peace deal is just round the corner, suggest the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged this... 12th June 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Higher inflation not just an energy problem May's weaker than expected core CPI outturn and the recent fall in oil prices will be some relief to the Fed, but the big picture remains that core PCE inflation is likely to remain above 3% for many... 12th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil market “offsets”; gold losing its shine The plunge in China's crude oil imports has helped to cushion the impact of the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz on the global oil market, and we think China could feasibly maintain the status quo... 12th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update What risk does the IPO boom pose to the stock market? Blockbuster IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, together with share sales by some AI hyperscalers, look set to unleash a wave of equity supply that will prove a major test for the stock market... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed on hold as Warsh faces a fractious FOMC Kevin Warsh’s first meeting back on the FOMC should be an eventful one, with the new Chair trying to tame a committee that is sounding a lot more hawkish. Indeed, we now judge that the Fed’s next move... 11th June 2026 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (May 2026) The May PPI data brought worse news for the Fed than was the case with the CPI data, with large gains in the portfolio management and airfares components pushing our estimate for the core PCE deflator... 11th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Interest rate tail risks and equities US equities are influenced by the distribution of investors’ fed funds rate expectations, not just the average level of them. A perceived reduction in overall tail risks is one factor that has... 10th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada to remain on hold this year The slightly dovish shift in language from the Bank of Canada today provides support to our forecast that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year. 10th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jun. 26) The slightly dovish shift in language from the Bank of Canada today provides support to our forecast that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year. 10th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (June 2026) The rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran War will worsen already-stretched housing affordability. This will weigh on housing activity over the next couple of quarters and presents a... 10th June 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (May 2026) The moderate 0.21% m/m rise in the core CPI in May was not as bad as we feared and the move was relatively narrow in nature, which should reassure the FOMC that price pressures are not broadening... 10th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q2 26 PREA consensus forecasts cut, especially for residential There was another reduction in the PREA consensus total return forecast for both 2026 and 2027 this quarter, led by the residential sector. However, this still left the consensus more optimistic than... 9th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Could bonds bring equities back down to Earth again? Last Friday’s pullback in US equities, as Treasury yields soared in the wake of a strong employment report, suggests bonds might be the straw that eventually breaks the stock market’s back. 9th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Have AI effects shifted to boosting US employment? It is hard to accurately gauge the extent to which the adoption of AI is affecting payrolls, but the recent improvement in jobs growth in those industries most exposed to AI suggests any negative... 9th June 2026 · 4 mins read
