US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (May 2026) ISM confirms manufacturing sector in cyclical upswing The rise in the ISM Manufacturing Index to a four-year high in May suggests that the sector continues to hold up well, probably because the boost... 1st June 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Peace deal still MIA; markets still don’t mind A US-Iran peace deal has, yet again, failed to materialise despite reports that one is imminent. But, in spite of another round of tit-for-tat attacks over the weekend, market participants continue to... 1st June 2026 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Price pressures not yet raising alarm bells The latest communications from Fed officials have become increasingly hawkish. But the softer-than-expected outturn for the April core PCE deflator and the mounting downside risks to real consumption... 29th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage growth accelerating despite weak activity The surprise 0.1% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP stole the headlines this week, but the bigger concern for the Bank of Canada was arguably the evidence of accelerating wage growth despite... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Despite short-term challenges, leisure set to bounce back With consumers cutting back discretionary spending as real incomes come under pressure, demand for leisure assets will be subdued over the next year or so. But longer term the future for the sector... 29th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q1 2026 and Mar.) The trade-induced contraction in GDP last quarter meant the economy tipped into a technical recession at the start of the year. But rising oil and gas activity mean this is certain to already be over... 29th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation could derail the equity market if there is no peace deal Soft data and (another) potential US-Iran deal offer hope that the US is not set for sustained bout of high inflation. But if inflation does stay higher for longer, history suggests that would be a... 28th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Softer payroll gain and unemployment rate to rise We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a smaller 65,000 in May, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.4%. 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Apr 2026) The softer-than-expected 0.24% m/m gain in the core PCE deflator in April buys the Fed a bit of time as it waits to see how higher oil prices will feed through to broader inflation pressures... 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Risks of a sudden carry trade unwind are building While the Iran war does not appear to have pulled the plug on the carry trade yet, the risk of a sudden unwind may continue to build for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But even if it... 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update AI boom will not prevent Southern metros pushing ahead Within a sluggish national picture, metro jobs performance has varied widely with some cities - notably Washington D.C. - seeing big contractions, while others grew strongly - such as Las Vegas and... 27th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Solid apartment fundamentals remain intact despite immigration slowdown Concerns that this administration’s anti-immigration push would trigger a sharp national slowdown in apartment demand have been misplaced. While unauthorised immigration has turned deeply negative... 27th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will bumper US IPOs really break the stock market’s back? Not all high-profile US initial public offerings (IPOs) have presaged major corrections in the S&P 500. Nonetheless, this year’s hotly anticipated ‘AI’ deals – from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI – are... 27th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury rally still has further to run, if peace actually breaks out Even after their recent rebound, long-term government bonds arguably have more room than equities (and most currencies) to stage a further recovery from the energy price shock if there is a sustained... 26th May 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar. 2026) Back-to-back house price declines in February in March, before the full effects of the Iran war on mortgage rates would even have been felt, suggest now is the time to downgrade our forecast. Rather... 26th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Three things that might limit any re-opening relief rally The chances of a large, broad-based relief rally if a the Strait of Hormuz is re-opened have probably diminished over time, although some markets have more upside than others. One that might benefit... 25th May 2026 · 6 mins read
