Capital Daily Hot inflation raises risk of higher yields for longer Hot US inflation data has put an October Fed hike back on the cards and sparked a dual sell-off in stocks and bonds. Our base case is for both to rally into year-end, but today’s news is another sign... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Retail and office face biggest downgrades to 2027 outlook Despite the recent run-up in Treasury yields, we aren’t expecting a major impact on commercial real estate cap rates as we anticipate this will be merely a short-term spike in bond yields. But... 14th October 2026 · 20 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) The upside surprise to core CPI in September was broad-based rather than due to any obvious temporary factors, therefore bringing an October rate hike back into play and presenting upside risks to our... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2026) While existing home sales edged up in September, the bigger picture is that they remain below the 4m annualised mark associated with a very weak market, weighed down by elevated mortgage rates... 13th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update How much is AI-related activity boosting GDP? We estimate that direct AI investment effects have contributed 0.3%-points to GDP growth over the past year while the wealth effects on consumption have been of a similar size. If equity values fall... 13th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Treasury yields to fall further, eventually We continue to expect Treasury yields to fall further, although the inflation picture and Fed may be stiff near-term headwinds. 12th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Commercial Property Lending (Sep.) 9th October 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak loonie further complicates the Bank’s task This week's fall in Canada's nominal effective exchange rate to its lowest level since the 2016 oil price crash might, at the margin, make Governing Council more reluctant to lean too dovish at... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation risks keep more Fed hikes in play The latest data and Fedspeak suggest there is upside risk to our forecast that the Fed will hike interest rates twice more, by a total 50 bp, in the coming six months. 9th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep. 2026) Large back-to-back employment declines in August and September, alongside a tick up in the unemployment rate to 6.5%, mean it will take a big upside surprise in the September CPI release in a couple... 9th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly G7’s oil plans are more peashooter than bazooka While the recent joint statement by the G7 succeeded in taking oil product export bans off the table for now , it stopped short of providing an additional boost to global petroleum supplies over and... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Flat yield curves are here to stay We don’t expect most major government yield curves to steepen much further in the medium term, despite the apparent recent rise in term premia. 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chart Pack (October 2026) Higher interest rates are set to drag on global property values in the coming year, especially in lower-yielding euro-zone and APAC. US property values are likely to be most resilient this year but we... 8th October 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily How the yen found its feet amid the bond sell-off The yen has, surprisingly, been one of the best performers this year amid the rise in bond yields; we think it will fare even better once they fall back. 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Sep. 15-16) The minutes of the FOMC meeting that concluded on 16th September confirm broad support for raising the target range at that meeting, as well as further tightening down the line. However, given the... 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Increasingly narrow equity rally rings alarm bells The strong performance of the IT sector has helped to drag the S&P 500 index to a new all-time high today. But this stock market rally looks narrow even by recent standards – the average firm in the... 6th October 2026 · 3 mins read
