US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Commercial Property Lending (August) Net lending by banks to commercial real estate excluding farms recovered to $8.3bn in August, from $4.6bn in July. That’s in line with the average over the past year of $8.4bn. Within the total, net... 11th September 2026 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Softening in core goods inflation unlikely to last While core goods inflation continued to ease in August, three key developments this week lend support to our view that this is unlikely to last. 11th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Markets still fairly resilient to US inflation threat While the US CPI data for August released today could have been worse, the combination of strong economic growth, above-target underlying inflation and the recent surge energy prices means that we now... 11th September 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Another rare earths crunch China's rare earth exports have been falling ever since Presidents Trump and Xi met in May, despite US suggestions that China had committed to keep shipments flowing. There has been no public pushback... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump may yet tighten the screw further While the Trump administration's planned import ban on some Canadian goods doesn't change much for the growth outlook, further escalation such as US withdrawal from CUSMA could be disastrous. We... 11th September 2026 · 6 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed set to hike next week and by 75bp in total The firm August price data means we are reinstating our prior forecast that the Fed will hike this month and by 75bp in total. That would take the fed funds target range to between 4.25% and 4.50%. 11th September 2026 · 9 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Aug 2026) The upside surprise to core CPI in August will result in another above-target-consistent gain in the core PCE deflator and means the Fed looks set to hike next week. 11th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Would a 5% 10Y Treasury yield really be a tipping point? Today’s further, oil-price-driven, sell-off in global sovereign bonds has seen the 10-year US Treasury yield rise to almost 5%, which is seen by some as a threshold above which financial markets might... 10th September 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s export gains go beyond strategic goods Concerns abroad about China’s surging exports have largely focused on “strategic sectors”. Less acknowledged is that China has been gaining significant global market share across the board, including... 10th September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Aug. 2026) The fall in existing home sales to 3.98m annualised in August will likely be followed by further declines over the next few months, as mortgage rates look set to climb above 7% amid a further selloff... 10th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Aug 2026) The key components of the PPI that feed into the core PCE deflator were fairly strong in August, raising the chance of the Fed hiking interest rates next week. Admittedly, that still depends on the... 10th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Equities Focus Most indicators suggest the AI equity boom is nearing an end Looking across a range of equity market “bubble” indicators supports our view that while the S&P 500’s rally has further to run this year, its medium-term prospects are poor given how frothy the... 10th September 2026 · 10 mins read
Global Commercial Property Focus Which global self-storage markets are ready for blast off? The Nordics and Switzerland stand out amongst a set of 19 global self-storage markets for their potential growth over the next 5-10 years. These markets will see a reasonably high rate of home-moving... 9th September 2026 · 12 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump ups the ante with import ban on Canada President Trump’s import ban covers only 0.25% of Canada’s exports to the US and will have little effect on either economy. Nonetheless, Trump’s willingness to impose an import ban is further evidence... 9th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect a rally, not just a rotation The strong performance of semiconductor stocks since OpenAI’s announcement of GPT-6 last week hasn’t lifted the S&P 500 index much, partly because of offsetting weakness in software stocks. But a... 8th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q3 26 PREA consensus for 2027 shows little sector variance There was another cut to the PREA consensus forecast for 2026, led again by residential. But the all-property forecast for 2027 saw no change and there is very little differentiation between five of... 8th September 2026 · 3 mins read
